PARIS | A possible Western embargo on Russian oil caused oil prices to soar once more on Monday and caused the fall of stock markets which fear a slowdown in the world economy.
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The price of a barrel of Brent from the North Sea came close to 140 dollars on Sunday evening, close to its absolute record of 147.50 dollars dating from July 2008.
After falls of 4% to 6% on Friday, European stock markets opened in the red once more. Around 08:50 GMT, Frankfurt dropped 4.48%, Paris 4.25%, Milan 5.28% and the London market, which has been more resilient since the start of this crisis, lost 2.42%.
The Tokyo Stock Exchange closed down 2.94% to its lowest level since November 2020, that of Shanghai at -2.17%. Losses in Hong Kong were even worse: -3.87%.
Conversely, safe havens are in demand: the price of gold briefly exceeded $2,000 an ounce, a first since August 2020, and the dollar gained 0.66% once morest the euro.
Faced with the worsening war in Ukraine, US Foreign Minister Antony Blinken said on Sunday that the United States and the European Union were “very actively” discussing the possibility of banning imports of Russian oil.
Europeans are more cautious, however, as some regional states such as Germany are heavily dependent on Russian oil and gas.
But even if the black gold of Moscow is not directly sanctioned for the moment in theory, it already finds almost no buyer, which seriously disturbs the world supply.
“Barring an end to hostilities, there is little on the horizon to slow” the rise in oil prices, according to a National Australia Bank note released Monday.
“The prolonged rise in oil and commodity prices is likely to cause European economies to ration consumption and will weigh on economic recovery and corporate earnings in 2022,” said Ipek Ozkardeskaya, analyst at Swissquote bank.
Around 08:45 GMT, the barrel of American WTI oil jumped 7.45% to 124.29 dollars and the price of a barrel of Brent from the North Sea soared 7.86% to 127.41 dollars.
Gas prices also ignited, its European price jumping 60% to more than 300 euros per megawatt hour.
Aluminum and copper at the highest
An escalation of the conflict in Ukraine would have “devastating” economic consequences worldwide, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) warned on Saturday.
In addition to the conflict itself, the sanctions imposed on Russia “will also have a substantial impact on the world economy and financial markets, with collateral effects for other countries”, according to the IMF.
“While the outlook for economic growth has darkened, the picture for inflation is even worse, as energy and agricultural commodity prices have soared since the start of the year, and this toxic cocktail poses a huge problem for central banks,” said Michael Hewson, analyst at CMC Markets.
Metal prices also continued to rise: aluminum exceeded the $4,000 per tonne mark for the first time and copper reached a new all-time high of $10,845 per tonne.
In this context, investors will scrutinize the consumer price index in the United States in February on Thursday and will pay close attention to the conclusions of the monetary policy meeting of the European Central Bank (ECB) on the same day.
Gold and dollar strengthen
After surpassing $2,000 per ounce, a first since August 2020, gold traded at $1,997 per ounce (+1.36%) around 8:45 a.m. GMT.
On the currency market, the euro fell sharply once morest the dollar, falling to 1.086 7 dollars (-0.56%).
The most exposed companies penalized Around 08:35 GMT, on the Paris Stock Exchange, Alstom, which holds a 20% stake in the Russian railway manufacturer Transmashholding, fell by 12.45%. Automakers Renault (-7.83%) and Stellantis (-10.05%) which operate factories in Russia were also penalized.
In Frankfurt, Uniper, which participated in the construction of the Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline, yielded 10.90%.
Banks tumbled: Societe Generale dropped 10.19%, Commerzbank 11.93%, Deutsche Bank 10.32%, or even Unicredit which lost 11.67%.
