This necessitates having a new vision of energy, its transmission networks and ways of supplying it, as well as the relationship between suppliers and importers, and the role of energy in curbing or stimulating global growth. In fact, there is a strong correlation between energy consumption and the growth of the commodity economy, more than it is related to the service and invisible economy. Rather, energy can be viewed as one of the engines of growth, just like interest.
Angel Boligan – Mexico
Four transformations are changing the global energy map:
– The rapid spread of the use of alternative energy and the reduction in its costs (the cost of solar energy has decreased by 70%, wind energy by 25% and batteries by 40%).
– Increasing dependence on electricity in the field of energy, as the value of global electricity consumption in 2016 is equal to the cost of oil consumption.
China, the world’s largest energy consumer, is shifting toward a service-oriented economy and a cleaner energy mix.
– The flexibility shown by the shale gas and oil sector in adapting to market changes, which may make it the number one source of energy supply in 2040. While shale oil production is estimated to rise by regarding 8 million b/d in the next few years.
Clean energy (natural gas and renewable energy) is expected to occupy the leading position in the world, meeting regarding 40% of the increase in primary energy demand, accounting for two-thirds of global investments in power plants and 80% in the European Union, and the energy share is likely to rise renewable energy in the world from 9% to regarding 16%.
Electricity is the rising force in global consumption markets. By 2040, it will account for 40% of the total increase in consumption, and one of the prominent uses is electric cars, the number of which rose to regarding 900 million cars within two decades. In the same period, the increase in demand for electricity in China is estimated to equal the total American demand, as its energy policies focus on electricity, natural gas, and digital technologies that are highly efficient in rationalizing consumption.
The eastern option involves, in the field of global transport by land and sea, raising the rates of land trade, protecting shipping lines, and reducing transportation costs and freight charges.
It suffices to mention in this context that China produces a third of the world’s renewable and clean energy, and 40% of electric cars, and is responsible for a quarter of the expected rise in demand for natural gas. The demand for liquefied gas will also grow to equal a quarter of global demand following two decades, to be the second largest source of fuel following oil, and China, India and other developing countries in Asia will be responsible for 80% of the expected growth in gas, while the share of energy sources with low carbon emissions will rise to 40 % over the same period.
What we conclude is that reaching the era of renewable energy is still far from being achieved, but on the other hand, and as the International Energy Agency predicted nearly ten years ago, the world has begun to enter strongly into the golden age of gas, with the ensuing geo-economic transformations that tend towards the east. , It is a reflection on the relations between states and the conflicts between them. Entering the gas age will be associated with five things:
The first: the balance in the relationship between gas-producing countries and gas-importing countries. Unlike oil, the gas trade requires large investments in pipelines that are no less important than investments in production fields, and the producing countries do not have the same flexibility that they have in the field of oil, in controlling the volume of production and the level of prices.
The second: Asia and the Levant countries play a key role in the gas market on both the supply and demand sides, as it accounts for nearly two-thirds of production, and its imports from it are expected to exceed half of global imports within the next two decades, making it the main influential force in the global market.
Third: The countries through which gas transmission lines pass are as important as the producing and importing countries, as they may plunge them into conflicts and tensions that affect their present and future. Noting that Central Asia and the countries of the Arab Mashreq and its vicinity constitute a main hub for gas pipelines and sometimes a mandatory passage for them.
Fourth: Gas supplies pass through land and internal waterways between neighboring countries, while oil roams the seas and oceans in its movement between exporting countries and importing countries, and thus is subject to the hegemony of countries that have the upper hand in the seas.
Fifth: Oil economies are linked to international cartels and major companies that control the economies of transportation, production and sale, while natural gas economies are more closely aligned to the will of states, their interests, and their supreme policies.
Accordingly, the competition and conflict between East and West over energy resources tends to the east in return for the advantages that the West still possesses in the field of oil and other fossil and conventional energy sources.
Examples of the struggle for gas
The Russian-German gas pipeline project through Ukraine: It was completed in the era of the Soviet Union from 1982-1984, and it met with American opposition. On the other hand, the Napco project was launched in 2002 to be an alternative to Russian gas, in transporting gas from its sources in Central Asia through Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan, Kazakhstan, and then the Caspian Sea and Turkey towards Europe. The Russians responded by signing the Turkmen gas monopoly contract.
– In 2012, an agreement was signed between Turkey and Azerbaijan to build a gas pipeline from Azerbaijan to Turkey in the name of the Trans-Anatolian Gas Pipeline “TANAP.” In 2019, the completion of the pipeline’s construction was announced to reach the Turkish-Greek border, and it is planned to link it to the Trans-Adriatic Sea Pipeline (TAP). The project bore the name of the Southern Gas Corridor, and is expected to pump 16 billion cubic meters annually to Europe, noting that a Russian company owns 10% of the project.
The Nord Stream Project: It is a natural gas pipeline that passes through the bottom of the Baltic Sea to Grunfswald in Germany (1221 km long), from which pumping began in 2011. The aim is to neutralize the transportation of gas to Europe from political complications. In 2018, Russian companies began work to build a second parallel pipeline known as the second North Stream (Nord Stream 2). With the operation of this line, Germany’s dependence on Russian gas reaches 75% of its total needs. In 2012, Congress imposed sanctions on the project to prevent European companies from working on it.
– The Blue Stream and the Turkish Stream: It aims to transport Russian gas to Turkey through the Black Sea. The agreement was signed in 2014, the project was completed and pumping began in 2018. (Excavations 3/9/2020)
– Mid-East Gas Pipeline: From the American perspective, the contribution of TANAP remains small compared to the volume of Russian supplies to Europe, which amount to 243 billion cubic meters. Accordingly, in 2017, Italy, Cyprus, Greece and the enemy entity signed an agreement to establish a gas pipeline with a length of 1872 km to secure between 9 billion and 11 billion cubic meters annually of reserves located in the eastern Mediterranean. In 2019, an agreement was signed that included the four countries, Egypt, Jordan, the Palestinian Authority and France, to establish a regional market that serves the interests of member states, and ensures the sustainability of gas supplies to them. Gas discoveries off the shores of occupied Palestine, Cyprus and Egypt are an essential variable in the Levantine geopolitics. The discovery of the occupying power was a major trigger for the normalization relations between it and some Arab countries. For several years, the gas coming from occupied Palestine fed Egypt’s needs through pipelines that start from Ashkelon on the Palestinian coast and then reach Arish and Port Said. Jordan also began importing gas through pipelines from the enemy entity. The latter launched its first field in 2014, and its reserves are estimated at 240 billion cubic meters in the Tamar field, 450 billion in the Leavatan field, and 127 billion in the Aphrodite field. These fields are among the most important and largest discovered fields on the eastern coast of the Mediterranean, while the Egyptian Zohr field became (2015 ) the largest ever with a reserve of 850 billion cubic meters.
The Power of Siberia gas pipeline: This pipeline runs from the depth of Russia (regarding 2,000 km in length) to China, carrying 38 billion cubic meters of gas, and this quantity covers regarding 6% of China’s needs, which amount to regarding 610 billion cubic meters annually.
