For the first month of 2022, imports increased by 39.5%. Similarly, exports recorded an increase of 23%.
At a time when concerns are mounting regarding the impact that the Ukrainian crisis might have on Morocco’s food bill, the figures just published by the Foreign Exchange Office on the monthly indicators of foreign trade are not reassuring. According to published data, imports of food products increased by 56.3% or +2.467 billion dirhams. These are mainly driven up by the increase in wheat purchases (+1.706 billion dirhams), which according to the office “reach their highest level in the last five years”.
Remember that these indicators are only those for the month of January, so keep your fingers crossed. “This change is due to the simultaneous rise in prices (+21.3%: 3,238 DH/t at the end of January 2022 once morest 2,669 DH/t at the end of January 2021) and quantities which have more than doubled (805 mt at the end January 2022 once morest 338 mt at the end of January 2021)”, explains the Foreign Exchange Office.
The energy bill still high
The rise in imports of goods affects all product groups. Indeed, the energy bill increases by 67% or +3.172 billion dirhams. This development is mainly dependent on the increase in supplies of gas oils and fuel oils (+1.712 billion dirhams) due to the price increase of 60.4% (6,436 dirhams/t at the end of January 2022 once morest 4,013 dirhams/t). t a year ago). The quantities imported remained almost stable: 579 mt at the end of January 2022 once morest 502 mt at the end of January 2021.
The trade deficit widens
For the first month of 2022, imports increased by 39.5% or +14.425 billion dirhams to 50.905 billion dirhams. This level reflects the post-Covid-19 recovery which was felt in the second half of 2021. Indeed, these imports posted an average of 45.514 billion dirhams/month during this period. Similarly, exports amounted to 30.645 billion dirhams, registering an increase of 23% or +5.729 billion dirhams. During the second half of 2021, these sales recorded a monthly average of 29.095 billion dirhams. Thus, the trade deficit increases by 75.2%. The coverage rate, meanwhile, stands at 60.2%.
Sales of natural and chemical fertilizers boost exports
At the end of January 2022, exports of goods stood at 30.645 billion dirhams once morest 24.916 billion dirhams a year earlier, an increase of 23% or +5.729 billion dirhams. This increase concerns the majority of sectors, mainly phosphates and derivatives, the agriculture and agri-food sector and that of textiles and leather. Sales of phosphates and derivatives more than doubled to 7.793 billion dirhams at the end of January 2022 once morest 3.483 billion dirhams at the end of January 2021. This development follows the increase in sales of natural and chemical fertilizers (+3.120 billion dirhams) due to the price effect which has more than doubled (7,163 DH/t at the end of January 2022 once morest only 2,882 DH/t at the end of January 2021). For their part, the quantities exported recorded only a slight increase of 2.6%.
Increase in food industry sales
At the same time, exports of the agricultural and agri-food sector increased by 8.4% or +595 MDH, standing at 7.654 billion MAD at the end of January 2022. This development is explained by the increase in sales of the food industry (+36, 2% or +849 MDH). On the other hand, sales of agriculture, forestry and hunting show a slight drop of 5.3% or -245 MDH.
Professionals in the textile and leather sector rub their hands
For their part, textile and leather exports increased by 20% or +499 MDH for the first month of 2022. This development is attributable to the increase in sales of the main segments of this sector, in particular occurrence of ready-made clothing (+18.3% or +280MDH), knitwear (+18.4% or +97MDH) and shoes (+21.7% or +46MDH). These exports exceed, on average, those made during the 2018-2021 period.
Auto sales decline
On the other hand, sales in the automotive sector fell by 11.5% or -911 million dirhams, amounting to 6.988 billion dirhams at the end of January 2022 once morest 7.899 billion dirhams a year earlier. The number of passenger cars exported at the end of January 2022 was almost stable compared to the same month of the previous year (22,112 cars exported at the end of January 2022 once morest 22,144 at the end of January 2021).
Decline in service exports
At the end of January 2022, the balance of trade in services showed a surplus down by 37.7% or -1.647 billion dirhams: +2.725 billion dirhams once morest +4.372 billion dirhams. This decline follows a decline in exports (8.241 billion dirhams once morest 10.081 billion dirhams, i.e. -18.3% or -1.840 billion dirhams) greater than that of imports (5.516 billion dirhams once morest 5.709 billion dirhams, i.e. -3.4% or -193 million dirhams ).
Drop in travel receipts
For their part, travel receipts continue to fall for the second consecutive year, reaching 1.062 billion dirhams at the end of January 2022, a decline of 58.6% compared to the end of January 2021 and 84.3% compared to the same month of the year 2020. Expenses, for their part, only fall by 12.6% or -99MDH. Thus, the balance of travel, the main component of trade in services, stood at +375 MDH at the end of January 2022 once morest +1.779 billion MAD at the end of January 2021 and +4.919 MDH at the end of January 2020. MRE transfers fell but remained higher than those recorded during the same month between 2018 and 2020. Transfers of funds made by Moroccans residing abroad amounted to 6.091 billion dirhams at the end of January 2022 once morest 6.748 billion dirhams at the end of January 2021, showing a drop of 9.7% or -657MDH. Nevertheless, these receipts remain higher than those recorded during the same month between 2018 and 2020.
Slight drop in FDI
At the end of January 2022, foreign direct investment (FDI) receipts recorded a slight drop of 4.5% or -79 MDH (1.696 billion MAD at the end of January 2022 once morest 1.775 billion MAD at the end of January 2021). For their part, expenses fell by 14.8% or -171MDH. Thus, the net flow of FDI increases by 14.9% or +92MDH from 618MDH at the end of January 2021 to 710MDH at the end of January 2022.
IDMEs are also falling
For the first month of 2022, Moroccan direct investment abroad (IDME) stands at 1.540 billion dirhams, posting a drop of 30.6% or -678 million dirhams compared to the same month of the previous year. On the other hand, the disposals of these investments relate to an amount of 1,208 MDH, up 64.6% or +474 MDH. Thus, the net flow of IDMEs fell by 77.6% or -1.152 billion dirhams.
Modeste Kouamé / ECO Inspirations
