“No one has any illusions anymore. Russia’s use of its natural gas resources as an economic and political weapon shows that Europe must quickly prepare to face considerable uncertainties over the supply of Russian gas next winter”warned Thursday Fatih Birol, executive director of the International Energy Agency (IEA).
To do this, the IEA, which is in its role since it was created precisely to advise OECD countries on energy policy, is proposing a set of 10 measures to reduce dependence on Russian gas with the aim to do without it definitively in the more or less long term. The challenge is significant given the volumes involved. In 2021, according to IEA data, the European Union (EU) imported 140 billion m3 of gas from Russia by pipeline and 15 billion m3, in the form of liquefied natural gas (LNG). These 155 billion m3 represent 45% of the EU’s total gas imports, and almost 40% of its total consumption.
Use of nuclear power
To decrease this volume,The IEA recommends before next winter the adoption of 10 measures:
- stop signing new Russian gas supply contracts
- seek alternative suppliers, in particular the United States, Algeria, Qatar, Azerbaijan for a volume estimated at 30 billion m3, which involves investing in port infrastructure for LNG.
- impose on each country a minimum level of strategic gas stocks (as is the case for oil)
- accelerate the development of wind and solar energy capacities (saving 6 million m3 of gas)
- increase electricity production from nuclear and biomass (savings of 13 million m3)
- increased taxation on exceptional profits made thanks to soaring gas prices to reduce the bills of the most vulnerable households.
- accelerate the substitution of heat pumps for gas boilers (savings of 2 billion m3)
- improve the energy efficiency of buildings (savings of 2 billion m3)
- encourage consumers to lower their thermostat by 1 degree (saving 10 billion m3)
- decarbonize electricity networks by diversifying sources.
It is therefore potentially 63 billion m3 of natural gas that might be deducted from gas imports from Russia, or some 40%. In other words, next winter, Europe will still depend on Russian gas for 92 billion m3, all other things being equal.
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More modest, the IEA is aiming for a reduction of 50 billion m3, i.e. a third of Russian imports, but which might reach 80 billion m3 if the EU were to agree to slow down the reduction of its CO2 emissions, by resorting to coal at instead of gas to produce electricity. The plan also incorporates the need to rebuild gas stocks, which are at their lowest, due to the very decision of Gazprom to reduce its deliveries this winter even though Europe was going through an energy crisis, and suffered a surge in prices. some gas. On the TTF market in the Netherlands, the price of gas has peaked in recent days at 199 euros per megawatt hour. Over one year, prices have jumped by… 930%.
An opportunity to decarbonize activity in Europe
If it is therefore a question of reducing European imports of Russian gas, the IEA’s proposals, as Fatih Birol has pointed out, are not only part of the sanctions once morest Moscow but are also an opportunity to accelerate the energy transition as it is included in the “Green Deal for Europe” which is to be financed by a third of the 1.800 billion euros of investments of the NextGenerationEU recovery plan and the seven-year EU budget. This is what Barbara Pompili, Minister of Ecological Transition, assured during this presentation: “More than ever, getting rid of Russian fossil fuels and fossil fuels in general is essential. What is at stake is both the need to step up the fight once morest climate change and, as we can now see, the short-term energy security of the European continent. The 10-point plan proposed today by the IEA will enrich our thinking.”
It remains to be seen how each European country will apply these measures.
