Worn out, the Republican front? This is music that can be heard at every election. By dint of rising, of becoming commonplace, the extreme right would no longer arouse the same vigor in the reflexes of rejection. The left, historically responsible for this fight, has not surrendered. But, occupied by her confrontation with Emmanuel Macron and her internal battles, she approaches the hypothesis of a Macron-Le Pen or Macron-Zemmour second round with great weariness and many questions.
For months, everyone has wanted to ward off this fatality, but the deadline is approaching and the polls have a hard tooth. Jean-Luc Mélenchon believes in the possibility of reaching the second round, pushed by a “effective voting”. For the others, following five years spent denouncing this new Macron-Le Pen divide, it is difficult to say that Emmanuel Macron can represent a dam. If 2017 were to happen once more, where will leftist voters be?
In opinion polls, they are largely uninterested in a second round where they would have no representative. According to the latest edition of the survey carried out by Ipsos-Sopra Steria in partnership with the Sciences Po Center for Political Research (Cevipof) and the Jean Jaurès Foundation for The world, on February 11, in the event of a Macron-Le Pen second round, a large part of them would not vote. Some 59% of Jean-Luc Mélenchon’s voters (La France insoumise, LFI), 53% of those of Fabien Roussel (French Communist Party, PCF) might abstain or vote blank. In any case, they do not express any intention to vote. Like 34% and 36% of voters for Yannick Jadot (Europe Ecologie-Les Verts, EELV) and Anne Hidalgo (Socialist Party, PS).
Among supporters of Jean-Luc Mélenchon, the Macron-Zemmour hypothesis arouses even greater abstention, up to 62%. And a fraction of the respondents who are certain to go and vote for MM. Roussel or Mélenchon in the first round would switch to Marine Le Pen in the second, rather than voting for the outgoing president, 17% and 12% respectively. Some 9% of them might even switch to Eric Zemmour in the second round.
A point of honor
Macron, Le Pen, Zemmour… by dint of useful votes, the Republican front has lost its strength. Pierre Laurent, former national secretary of the Communist Party, is worried. Trivialization of the extreme right on one side, domination of Emmanuel Macron on the other. In the middle, the left struggles to organize an alternative narrative: “It’s not just a problem of media response. Can there be a popular response?he asks himself. I will never trivialize the rise to power of the extreme right. I called to vote Macron once morest Le Pen at 8:15 p.m. in 2017, I have already seen the debates that this has provoked. Today, too many people are fooled by the idea that it’s all the same…”
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