Container Sanxiong’s share price has strengthened recently, Wan Hai (2615-TW) today (21) hit an integer mark of 200 yuan, a new high since the end of last year, and Yang Ming (2609-TW) also came to a new high at the end of last year, while Evergreen (2603-TW) hit a high since early December last year, and Hongyuan Investment Consulting released the latest report pointing out that the container shipping market will still be in short supply this year and next year, and profits are expected to rise year by year.
Hongyuan Investment Advisor emphasized that the first quarter is a traditional off-season for shipping, and according to past experience, it is the lowest freight rate in the whole year. However, since the beginning of this year, the SCFI index is still at a historical high, and it can be estimated that the profits of the shipping industry will explode in 2022. rush.
Hongyuan Investment Consultants further explained that since new ships can only be ordered to launch in 2024 at the earliest, the new demand this year will still exceed the new supply, which will continue last year’s market situation of short supply.
Even in 2023, more new ship orders will be delivered, but carbon dioxide emission reduction will be implemented globally from January 2023, and most ships must slow down, which is still equivalent to a significant drop in capacity supply.
On the other hand, since the current SCFI index reaches 4980 points, which is 80% higher than the average value of 2769 points in April last year, Hongyuan Investment expects that the long-term contract of the American line will rise sharply on May 1, and it can be further pushed forward. Increase the profitability of the shipping industry in the second half of the year.
Regarding the port congestion problem, Hongyuan Investment Consulting analyzed that the infection of workers is only a short-term influencing factor, and the lack of infrastructure is the main reason for the long-term port congestion. It is expected that the port congestion will become normalized, and the port congestion may become more serious in the next five years, reducing the ship turnover rate. , to offset the increase in new ships.
