“The government is right to be cautious”, for epidemiologist Antoine Flahault

9:15 p.m., February 19, 2022

France should keep the vaccination pass until mid-March. Is this caution justified, when many of our European neighbors are lifting restrictions?
The government is right to be cautious. The hasty lifting of measures has often resulted in poorer health, social and economic performance. The population must benefit as soon as possible from the looming lull, but let’s wait for it to settle in! The circulation of the virus remains very intense. By easing prematurely, neighboring countries risk slowing the decline and endangering vaccinated but immunocompromised, elderly or unvaccinated populations, such as children with risk factors.

Starting tomorrow, schoolchildren will no longer wear the mask outside. This is a good thing ?
Yes, that has always seemed like scientific nonsense to me – except in the presence of a peak in fine particle pollution! In schools, the focus should be on improving indoor air quality.

What will the epidemic look like in the coming months?
Three scenarios are emerging for 2022. The first would be a return to a situation similar to 2020, with the emergence of a new strain escaping the vaccine. Second option, a new variant takes the place of Omicron. A month passed between the third wave, mid-June 2021, and the fourth, in July 2021. Then another month between the fourth, on September 25, and the fifth, at the end of October. Finally the arrival of Omicron telescoped with the end of the Delta wave. When might a next wave occur? Nobody knows it. Last possibility, that of an “endemic-epidemic” situation.

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What is this third scenario?
It is a hybrid scenario between viral diseases that become endemic, such as HIV infection or the hepatitis B virus (never eliminated, they continue to circulate quietly in the community) and viral respiratory diseases high epidemic potential. This is the pattern of seasonal influenza, gastroenteritis and chickenpox manifesting in outbreaks. But with the coronavirus, summer epidemics of Covid can occur, as currently in South Africa, Australia or New Zealand. Such a scenario might therefore give rise to more frequent epidemic cycles than those of the flu.

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There must not be a transfer of responsibilities from the authorities to the population

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How to live better with the virus?
Contrary to what we hear, in this new epidemic phase, there must not be a transfer of responsibilities from the authorities to the population. If the population was on the front line during the pandemic waves (respect for barrier gestures, vaccination, etc.), with the lull, it will be up to the public authorities to take over and prepare to anticipate future scenarios.

What measures should be taken?
First, set up more efficient and less expensive coronavirus monitoring. No longer from an accounting of positive PCR tests at all costs, because this provides a very imprecise estimate of contamination. Just as political polls are often carried out, it would be necessary to constitute a representative sample of the population, from whom we would ask a little saliva regularly to estimate the number of infections. This is done in the UK. By following a few thousand people, we might thus monitor several respiratory viruses in a much more precise way.

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How to tackle contamination?
This is the second part. 99% of them occur indoors where we spend 90% of our time. To reduce them, it is therefore necessary to bring the quality of indoor air to that of outdoor air. Through efficient ventilation, filtration and purification, just as we made tap water drinkable in the 20th century. This is a major project requiring coordinated reflection at European level. If we no longer want to confine our social and economic life, nor remain masked all the time, we must act with the air as we did with the purification of water.