“On the other hand, what is more credible is a decrease in its gas supply” judges Professor Adel El Gammal. “Today Russia has supplied 25% less gas than the previous year. It continued to honor long-term contracts but subtly reduced supply. It did not default on a contractual supply but did not respond to Europe’s additional request, with the aim of putting pressure on the Twenty-Seven“, he explains.
Europe has an interest in diversifying its imports
Europe can therefore well and truly do without the famous gas pipeline, but there is very little room for manoeuvre. And do without Russian gas is impossible.
Faced with Russia’s hold on the European gas market, Europe therefore remains under tension.
The threat of a clean cut is certainly not on the agenda, but nothing can prevent Russia from cutting off the supply in the short term and for short periods, enough to leave room for a possible destabilization of the Union.
Europe has however the possibility of reducing this force of intimidation of the superpower according to the secretary general of theEERA : “If tensions persist, Europe has an interest in reducing its dependence on Russian gas, in particular via contracts with other countries in the world on the Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) market. This would make it possible to be less oriented towards Russia but also to have a larger quantity of gas stock by investing in this energy“.
Indeed, energy prices have risen sharply in recent months, the mild winter has helped to limit damage. But Europe’s reserves took a hit as Russia failed to meet the additional demand as it usually did: “European gas stocks were particularly low this year. They were at 50% in January whereas they were around 70-75% in previous years. This put a strain on European market prices. If the winter had been colder, consumption would have been greater, we would have run out of stock and the figures would have exploded“, adds Adel El Gammal.
And Belgium in all this?
Belgium foresees the end of nuclear power in 2025. Nevertheless, it has chosen to invest in gas to compensate for the loss of nuclear power, the time of the transition to carbon neutrality in 2050. Two gas-fired power plants must also be built in Vilvoorde and the Awirs.
This plan will necessarily increase our need for natural gas in the coming years, the time to advance in our transition to renewable energies.
However, knowing how the international context, NATO/Russia tensions and gas prices will evolve is still a matter of speculation. If Russia decides to block the valves, Belgium will have to replace “only” 6% of its gas import share. A weak dependence on the Russian republic but the prices will still be on the rise, as in all European countries. As the European energy market is relatively homogeneous, the increase will affect all of the Twenty-Seven.