The federal government’s recent energy measures mean that inflation is expected to stand at 5.5% this year, slightly lower than the figure announced at the beginning of the month (5.8%) . The Federal Planning Bureau therefore expects the pivot index to be exceeded in October 2022 rather than in April, it announced on Thursday in its report on economic forecasts for 2022. “Although this forecast assumes that the price-wage spiral remains under control, higher wage growth and inflation cannot be ruled out in the current environment. In this case, the external competitive position of the economy Belgian might be affected in the medium term”, he justifies.
In addition, in 2022, the Belgian economy will grow at a rate of 3%, thanks in particular to household consumption, according to projections. “In 2020, households were indirectly forced to save, not because of a drop in their purchasing power but because many shops were closed. In 2021 and 2022, we are witnessing a movement of catch-up,” says Ludovic Dobbelaere, economist at the Federal Planning Bureau.
Investments, driven by favorable demand prospects, stimulus plans, improved profitability and low interest rates, will rise by 1.7% this year. And public investment will increase by 5.8% this year, thanks in particular to stimulus plans.
But what will be the effects of the coronavirus crisis on employment? “If we consider the situation as a whole, the period of health crisis will only have a limited impact on the labor market”, slice Ludovic Dobbelaere.
The Federal Planning Bureau forecasts that employment growth will fall back to 57,000 people in 2022, following reaching 84,000 in 2021. “This is due to stronger economic growth in 2021 than current forecasts for 2022. also playing a role is the gradual phasing out of the support measures taken by the public authorities in the context of the health crisis.This phasing out should temporarily slow down employment growth. ‘next fall,’ the report read.
This year, the unemployment rate is expected to fall to 8%, thus reaching a level significantly lower than before the crisis (8.9% in 2019).
