Without a drumbeat foreshadowing a war in Ukraine, the Russians follow with a mixture of patriotism and bewilderment the standoff of the Kremlin with “the West”. “With NATO troops on our doorstep, the West is ready to attack us. Luckily Putin is here. It’s all regarding him…”assures Alexei, a retired Muscovite.
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A faithful supporter of the head of the Kremlin, he has his eyes riveted on public television which, once more this weekend, criticized with sarcasm “hysteria” American and European on the risks of Russian invasion in Ukraine. The authorities and their relays in society convey the message to public opinion: if they do not speak of an imminent war, the tone is offensive. Westerners are accused of looking for pretexts to “provoke and attack Russia in all directions”convinces himself Alexei.
A patriotic wave that has subsided
The warning from the authorities is clear, well transmitted by public television: Moscow has no ambition to invade Ukraine but, in the event of provocation on the other side of the border, the Russian army might go to the offensive. “And the Ukrainian army will not last long…”warns Natalia, a young Kremlin hardliner from Muscovite.
This speech appeals to a large part of the Russians. But the patriotic wave caused by the annexation of Crimea in 2014 has largely died down. The vast majority of Russians are neither for nor once morest Vladimir Putin’s Kremlin, they lead their lives without really being interested in politics.
This new crisis with the West hardly fascinates them. “It is far from our daily life. Beyond all these political declarations and military movements, the sun will continue to rise…”, prefer to philosophize Nikita and his wife Yulia. They follow the news from afar. Not really worrying.
A steady decline in the standard of living
“There will be no full-scale war. There will be tensions, but Western leaders will make sure Putin can save face in the end.”says Vitalii, a longtime Kremlin critic from Muscovite. “The problem is that your Western leaders are scared to death of Putin and, in the face of him, have become powerless”, he regrets. This young father does not hide his concern regarding the new rise in tension.
A geopolitical crisis, with sanctions and counter-sanctions between Moscow and the West, would have effects not on the Russian economy, resilient for eight years despite Western measures taken following the annexation of Crimea, but on daily life. of the Russians. Sanctions and the drop in the ruble risk boosting inflation that is already growing strongly. What encumber a little more the purchasing power of Russians who, since 2014, have suffered a constant decline in the standard of living and an increase in impoverishment.
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The liberals around the Kremlin, admittedly less and less influential in the face of the hawks, keep reminding us: the priority given to the conflict with the West risks reinforcing the isolation and weakening of Russia. A non-subject for silovikithe men of the security services, impervious to sanctions.
On the other hand, the concern is great in business circles loyal to the Kremlin, among Russians and among foreign investors. “The risk of collision is great if no one is willing to compromisefears the head of a subsidiary of a European company in Moscow. I haven’t been this worried in a long time…”