The West and Moscow spoke yesterday, Monday February 14, 2022, of a chance for a diplomatic outcome to avert the risk of a war in Ukraine, the United States believing that Vladimir Putin had not taken his “final decision” on the outbreak of an invasion.
In a context of heightened tensions, Washington however tempered this hope by saying that Moscow had further strengthened its military capacities on the borders of Ukraine during the weekend, where more than 100,000 soldiers have been massed for weeks.
“Military action might take place at any time”, Pentagon spokesman John Kirby said..
Faced with the “spectacular acceleration” of the deployment of Russian forces, the United States has decided to move its embassy in Ukraine from Kiev to Lviv, in the west of the country.
“There remains a crucial opportunity for diplomacy,” however, underlined British Prime Minister Boris Johnson and US President Joe Biden who spoke yesterday, Monday, by telephone.
“Dialogue offers”
And efforts to salvage the situation continue. German Chancellor Olaf Scholz is going to Moscow this Tuesday, February 15, 2022, the day following a trip to Kiev.
In the Ukrainian capital, Olaf Scholz urged Russia to seize “offers of dialogue” to defuse the crisis, while threatening to take measures that “will have significant repercussions” on the Russian economy in the event of an attack.
Yesterday, Monday, Moscow also deemed possible a diplomatic settlement of the Russian-Western crisis and announced the end of certain military maneuvers.
“There is always a chance,” said Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov, answering a question from Vladimir Putin, according to images broadcast on television.
“Our possibilities are far from being exhausted”, continued the minister, even proposing to “prolong and broaden” the dialogue, remarks much less offensive than those which have emanated from Moscow in recent weeks. “Good”, replied the Russian president laconically.
“Unity Day”
There is “no alternative to diplomacy,” insisted UN Secretary General Antonio Guterres.
Media have mentioned the date of tomorrow, Wednesday February 16, 2022, as a potential day of a Russian invasion. A hypothesis that Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky seemed to sweep away, with a dose of sarcasm.
“We are told that February 16 will be the day of the attack. We will make it a day of unity,” the head of state said in an address to the nation, calling on Ukrainians to hang the blue and yellow national flag that day.
For his part, French Foreign Minister Jean-Yves Le Drian said that “all the elements” were in place for a “strong” Russian military offensive. “There is no indication today” that President Putin has made a decision, he added.
End of certain exercises
As if to give the impression of an appeasement, the Russian Defense Minister also announced on Monday the end of certain military maneuvers, while the exercises on the Russian-Ukrainian borders and in Belarus fuel fears of an escalation.
“Exercises are taking place, one part is over, another part is coming to an end. Others are still being made given (their) size,” Sergei Shoigu told Vladimir Putin.
Russia, which already annexed Crimea in 2014 and supports pro-Russian separatists in eastern Ukraine, has consistently denied any aggressive intentions.
On the contrary, she says she is threatened by the expansion of NATO’s resources in Eastern Europe and calls for “security guarantees”, in particular the assurance that Ukraine will never join NATO.
At the risk of irritating the Kremlin, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky reiterated yesterday, Monday February 14, 2022, that Kiev wanted to join NATO in order to “guarantee its security”.
The West deemed the Russian demands unacceptable, but proposed increased dialogue on other issues, such as arms control.
Yesterday, Monday, Serguei Lavrov deemed some of the American proposals “constructive”.
Dug trenches
While waiting for hypothetical progress on the diplomatic front, in the south-east of Ukraine, near the front line with pro-Russian separatists, the population is mobilizing in the prospect of an attack.
“We are digging trenches in which the Ukrainian soldiers can easily jump and defend themselves,” Mikhaïlo Anopa, 15, told AFP.
In Kiev, no sign of panic was visible. But Yuri Fedinski, a 46-year-old musician, chose to leave eastern Ukraine for the United States with his pregnant wife and four children.
“We take them to learn English in an American school (…), an alternative to what Putin would like for Ukraine,” he told AFP at Kiev airport.
To try to ward off the threat of a Russian invasion, Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau announced yesterday, Monday, the shipment of weapons and ammunition to Ukraine, while granting a loan of 500 million Canadian dollars (347 million euros).
