Hello, it’s lunchtime in Paris and a flurry of rallies is planned today: Trotskyist candidate Nathalie Arthaud, animalist Hélène Thouy, center-left Christiane Taubira, and far-right candidate Eric Zemmour.
What happened yesterday? Socialist candidate Anne Hidalgo left Paris for a three-day visit to French Antilles.
Why does it matter? Anne Hidalgo is facing a difficult task. Her voting intentions continue to decline in the polls and reach a historic low level as some members of her party may be tempted to support other candidates, including the incumbent president.
Frustration over inflation, anger toward vaccine pass, light a match, wait. Who knows what might happen? The self-proclaimed French “freedom convoys” might tell, as they were trying to reach Paris on Saturday where they were not welcome.
For the moment, it’s hard to pin down the main driving force of this movement. The anti-vaccine protest seemed to have disappeared in recent weeks, despite the unwitting help of the president who declared, in January, he wanted to “piss off” those still refusing to get vaccinated. Florian Philippot, a former advisor of far-right Marine Le Pen, tried to take advantage of the presidential slur by joining weekly Saturday followingnoon rallies in Paris, with absolutely no benefit.
Contrary to what is going on in Canada with truck drivers protesting vaccine mandates, no corporation stands on the front line. The convoys are mostly composed of retirees and workers. Some claim to be from the Yellow Jackets movement (winter 2018-2019), which shook up Emmanuel Macron’s government before disappearing through attrition and lack of capacity to organize and bring up leaders and programs.
Whatever the consequences, the fact that such a movement can take place during the presidential election, France’s most unifying political event, confirms that the campaign doesn’t stick as we already noted and that traditional parties are caught off guard once once more and unable to channel social anger. Conservative candidate Valérie Pécresse, who had hoped to revive her wavering campaign with her biggest rally scheduled for Sunday in Paris, might be among the political collateral damage of these convoys if it discourages supporters from attending.
Our last survey published yesterday also shows that French citizens are less attentive to the current campaign. Indeed, it has not really started yet, and the first round is less than two months away. 71% of the respondents say they are interested. It’s 10 points less than five years ago. Similarly, 65% say they are certain to vote in the first round, on April 10 – compared to 70% in 2017. The survey also showed that purchasing power is the main concern of French voters, and by far.
It remains to be seen whether Emmanuel Macron’s candidacy, – he is likely to announce it before the end of the month -, might change the mood. On Friday, the presidential candidates split into two camps: those who support the convoys, – far-right and hard-left candidates -, some unreservedly, and those who remained silent. Marine Le Pen (le Rassemblement national) said she understood the movement. Jean-Luc Mélenchon did as well, but more cautiously. On the contrary, environmentalist candidate Yannick Jadot said that blockading the city of Paris like Ottawa in Canada was unacceptable.
Emmanuel Macron has taken a hands-off approach, calling for calm. Coincidentally or not, the government is announcing every day that it is lifting some of Covid’s restrictions as if it were trying to deprive the protesters of ammunition. But there are still other issues that can distract voters and delay the long-waited start of this elusive campaign. What would happen if Russian troops massed on the Ukrainian border launched a full-scale invasion? Would the programs, the quarrels, and the slogans still have the slightest echo?
Graphic of the day
The results of our latest survey published on Friday.
Quote of the day
“That was also a family moment”
Conservative candidate Valérie Pécresse expressed satisfaction following meeting with former president Nicolas Sarkozy (2007-2012) on Friday. “We had a frank and affectionate conversation” and “it was very useful for me to have the advice of a former president of the Republic,” she said. “That was also a family moment,” she added, even if Nicolas Sarkozy seems curiously reluctant to endorse a candidate from his party.
Countdown
57 Days until the presidential election’s first round
71 Days until the presidential election’s second round
Thanks for reading, see you tomorrow.