VFriday, January 21, the heads of American and Russian diplomacy began a meeting in Geneva deemed crucial. Objective: to defuse the Ukrainian crisis. Sergei Lavrov and Antony Blinken, who know each other well, shook hands before starting the last pas de deux of an intense diplomatic ballet, Washington suspecting Moscow of wanting to invade Ukraine, which the Kremlin denies.
This diplomatic meeting might well resemble that of the last chance. The meeting between Sergei Lavrov and Antony Blinken in a palace on the shores of Lake Geneva is the final pas de deux of an intense diplomatic ballet that began 11 days ago, already in Geneva, between their deputies. They had agreed to continue talking to each other, despite the strong differences of opinion and the hundreds of thousands of Russian soldiers massed on the borders of Ukraine.
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“A swift, severe and united response from the United States”
If the diplomatic sequence of January 10 had lasted nearly eight hours, the face-to-face Blinken-Lavrov should not exceed two hours. Antony Blinken has a reputation for unshakable calm, Sergei Lavrov is more sanguine and has a biting verb. “We are facing complex problems and resolving them will take time. I don’t expect us to settle them in Geneva, “said Antony Blinken on Thursday in Berlin, who is counting on “mutual understanding” and de-escalation on the Russian side to ease tensions.
The head of American diplomacy was offensive, declaring in particular that the United States will respond “to even non-military aggression by Russia”. Antony Blinken also claims to have asked his Russian counterpart for proof that the country does not intend to invade Ukraine as well as the withdrawal of troops at the border.
On Wednesday, President Joe Biden judged that his counterpart Vladimir Putin “will enter” Ukraine and he promised him “a rapid, severe and united response from the United States and our allies” if the Russian army crosses the border. The next day, the Kremlin denounced “destabilizing” remarks, which might give ideas “to hotheads among Ukrainian representatives”.
Russia, which already supports the rebellion in the east of the country which has killed more than 13,000 people since 2014, and has annexed Crimea, denies any plans for an invasion. But the Kremlin insists on written guarantees for its security, including the promise that Kiev will not join NATO and that the Alliance will not seek to expand into what it considers its backyard. The United States has already dismissed these requests as unreasonable.
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Washington ready to discuss Russian fears for their safety
Antony Blinken arrives in Geneva following an express tour that took him from Kiev to Berlin, the city symbol of the reunification of Europe following the Cold War, to discuss with the German, French and British allies. “Letting Russia violate these principles with impunity would take us all back to more dangerous and unstable times, when this continent – and this city – was cut in two, separated by a no man’s land criss-crossed by military patrols, and when the threat of total war weighed heavily on everyone’s life,” recalled Antony Blinken in a speech delivered before his departure for Switzerland.
“It would also send the message to others around the world that these principles can be sacrificed,” he warned. But the door is not quite closed, as the Biden administration has repeatedly said it is ready to discuss Russian fears for their safety. During initial talks last week in Switzerland, US Assistant Secretary of State Wendy Sherman offered to draw inspiration from the defunct Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces (INF) disarmament treaty, signed during the Cold War with Moscow.
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A new Biden-Putin summit to come?
In 2019, former US President Donald Trump withdrew from the treaty, accusing Russia of violations. On Wednesday, President Biden said he was ready for a new summit with Vladimir Putin, following that of June 16, 2021 in Geneva. Russia did not say no to the proposals on missiles and maneuvers but recalled that this was not essential. For good measure, it announced on Thursday major naval maneuvers in January and February in the Atlantic, Arctic, Pacific and even the Mediterranean.
The head of the American diplomacy on Wednesday urged Vladimir Putin to choose the “peaceful way” and he also made it clear that he would not offer written answers to the very detailed requests made a few weeks ago by the Russians on the points of litigation. For Washington, the clock is ticking, and last week the United States accused Russia of having “prepositioned” agents in Ukraine to carry out an operation that might serve as a “pretext for an invasion”. Sergei Lavrov and Antony Blinken will speak separately to the press following the meeting.
