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Africa might import a record 20 million tonnes of rice this year. And this because of local production which suffered last year and a demand which continues to increase.
On the plates of African consumers, we should find this year more imported rice than usual. Africa might absorb 40% of world rice trade this year, or 20 million tons. A record figure, which contrasts with the objectives of self-sufficiency in rice displayed by certain producing States. But the climate played once morest the local crops last year. 2021 was marked by a succession of droughts and floods, combined with a recurring lack of fertilizer.
Result: production has stagnated while demand continues to grow by 2 to 3% per year. A production which will therefore not be able to compensate for population growth this year, explains Patricio Mendez del Villar, researcher at the Center for Agricultural Research for Development (CIRAD).
Mali’s poor harvest pushes up imports
Among the importers driving up demand this year is Mali. The country is expected to import 80% more rice than last season, according to US Department of Agriculture (USDA) forecasts released this January. In question, a decrease in planted areas and declining yields for lack of fertilizer. So many factors that caused the harvest to fall by 15%, according to American figures.
The USDA import forecasts combined with those of the FAO (Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations) obviously need to be confirmed. They will depend on the continent’s second rice harvest in four or five months, depending on the country. And also the price of Indian rice and its availability.
Indian exports slow
Today, Africa absorbs half of India’s exports. But the price of this cheap rice might increase: part of the production is currently blocked for lack of train to transport it. It is potentially a third of what was to be exported by India in February which cannot be, ie 500,000 tonnes.
If the blockage lasts for several more weeks, the African consumer may be led to eat a little less rice. Because if Africa has to get supplies elsewhere, it will necessarily have to pay more, Vietnamese and Thai rice being for the moment always more expensive than their Indian cousin.
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