How do the French perceive Marine Le Pen three months before the presidential election? The 2022 edition of the barometer on the National Rally (RN) produced by Kantar Public with The world and Franceinfo – with 1,016 people interviewed face to face at their homes – reveals that the candidate has softened her image, in a very clear contrast effect with Eric Zemmour. Beyond this appearance, however, it faces persistent difficulties compared to the previous presidential election.
In recent months, the view of the French on Marine Le Pen has changed in an unprecedented way: only 40% see in her the representative of a “nationalist and xenophobic extreme right”, i.e. 11 points less than in 2018. At the same time, 46% perceive her as the representative of a “patriotic right attached to traditional values” (+ 8 dots). Conversely, a majority of French respondents (64%) consider Eric Zemmour as the representative of a nationalist and xenophobic extreme right, including within the RN, where more than a third of voters see him as such.
“It’s a spectacular development for Marine Le Pen and this change is driven more by the electorate on the left (+ 5 points) than by that of the Republicans”observes Emmanuel Rivière, international director of political studies at Kantar Public. A positive development for the candidate of the RN, therefore, but without contribution of votes to the key.
Not only is Marine Le Pen perceived as less extreme, but she is the subject of less massive rejection than Eric Zemmour. Few French people want the victory of the candidate (21%), but even fewer would like that of the polemicist (8%).
Improved personal image
The MP for Pas-de-Calais has not, however, been completely trivialized. Half of the French still believe that it represents “a danger to democracy” (50%), significantly more than Emmanuel Macron (31%) or the rebellious Jean-Luc Mélenchon (29%). Here once more, she benefits from the comparison with Eric Zemmour: 62% of French people consider the polemicist as a danger to democracy.
But, long before the emergence of Eric Zemmour in the political game, Marine Le Pen had managed to smooth the image of his party: the concern with regard to the RN has diminished over time, posting 10 points less than five years ago and 25 points less than in the early 1990s. “This takes into account both the nature of the political project and the proximity of power: the more the RN progresses, the more it is perceived as dangerous, says Emmanuel Rivière. In periods of poor performance between 2002 and 2011, the National Front was perceived as less dangerous because it was in difficulty. But today, and this is the novelty, the RN is at a high level, and the French consider it less of a danger. »
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