The threat of a Russian military invasion in Ukraine has not disappeared, but Kiev nevertheless has cause for satisfaction: since the onset of the crisis in spring 2021 and the deployment of 100,000 Russian troops on the Ukrainian borders, the country has benefited. strong support from its American and European partners. The summit, Wednesday January 12, between Russia and NATO, provided further proof. The Atlantic Alliance has thus repeated its refusal to grant Moscow a right of scrutiny on a possible accession of Ukraine.
The day before, Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba welcomed “The unity and coherence of positions facing (…) to Russian ultimatums ”, following the talks, Monday, in Geneva, between Russia and the United States. Moscow “Does not have the right to vote” on the possible accession of Ukraine to NATO, he insisted.
According to Oleksiy Melnyk, co-director of the Razumkov think tank in Kiev, “Ukraine has many reasons to be satisfied and grateful to its international partners, even if it sometimes complains regarding some of them. They provide it with enormous military and economic support, almost as much as if Ukraine were a member of NATO ”. Since the start of the war in Donbass and the annexation of Crimea by Moscow in 2014, the United States has provided more than $ 2.5 billion (2.2 billion euros) in security assistance to the former Soviet republic, of which $ 450 million in 2021 alone.
The collapse of Russia’s image
If the summit between Russia and NATO does not yet allow to consider a de-escalation, the sequence of international negotiations – which opened Monday in Geneva and continues Thursday in Vienna with a meeting of the Organization for the security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE) – nevertheless offers Ukraine a brief respite. “While the talks continue, at least Putin does not decide to attack Ukraine”, remarque M. Melnyk.
For his part, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky called on Tuesday for a quadripartite summit with Moscow, Paris and Berlin for “End the conflict” with the pro-Russian separatists, supported by Moscow. A request remained, for the time being, a dead letter.
The war in Donbass, which has already claimed more than 13,000 lives in almost eight years, has in any case profoundly changed the way in which Ukrainians perceive their big neighbor. Before the conflict broke out, more than 80% considered Russia a friendly country, up from 8% today, according to a study published in 2021 by the Razumkov Center. At the same time, less than 20% supported Ukraine’s integration into NATO. They are more than 50% today.
