It was a last-minute compromise, pulled out to avoid the embarrassment of a NATO summit that would otherwise be concluded without a strong announcement. In this month of April 2008, in the Romanian capital of Bucharest, the lines are clearly drawn: the American President George W. Bush wants to offer Georgia as well as Ukraine an “action plan for membership. », Or MAP, that is to say a roadmap which would lead to the accession of these two countries bordering Russia to the North Atlantic military alliance.
Facing him, Angela Merkel and Nicolas Sarkozy are united in their opposition, fearing that such an announcement is seen as a provocation. They are, of course, not the only ones. Ahead of the summit, the American ambassador to Moscow, William J. Burns, had wired his concern to Washington: “Ukraine’s entry into NATO is the redder of the red lines for the Russian elite”, he wrote, adding in brackets “Not just Putin”.
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It was with the mediation of the United Kingdom that the compromise was finally found, and anchored in a press release: “We agree that (Ukraine and Georgia) will become members of NATO. “ The MAP, a very concrete process which would have served as a pre-accession, gives way to a vague promise without a timetable.
High risk negotiations
Thirteen years later, the echoes of this promise continue to resonate, however, while both Ukraine and NATO are at the heart of negotiations initiated by Moscow and Washington on Monday January 10 in Geneva. In a proposal published in December, Moscow demands as well as the members of NATO “Undertake to curb any enlargement, including to Ukraine and to other states”. Ukraine, which in the fall observed nearly 90,000 Russian soldiers positioning themselves along its border, is the only country of the former USSR mentioned in full in the text.
“Russia is raising the stakes by wanting an American-Russian treaty which would impose on Europeans their choices in terms of alliance, analysis François Heisbourg, special advisor to the Foundation for Strategic Research. For me, this is the most tense moment since the end of the Soviet empire. “
To the chagrin of Moscow, NATO is in fact more present than ever in this Eastern European country, the scene of multiple upheavals for twenty years – two revolutions in 2004 and 2014; the annexation of the Crimean peninsula by Russia in the same year; and, since, a conflict between the Ukrainian army and separatist groups financed, equipped and supported by Moscow.
“We have recently observed the highest level of cooperation ever seen (between Ukraine and NATO)”, confirms from Kiev Sergiy Solodkyy, deputy director of the Ukrainian think tank New Europe Center. A constitutional change in 2019 also made accession to the European Union and NATO a “Strategic direction” from Ukraine.
Ever closer ties
No membership therefore, and no alliance troops in the country or guarantee of defense in the event of conflict. But NATO and its advisers have been providing the Ukrainian army with cybersecurity, logistics and communication support since 2016, and participating in the training of Ukrainian soldiers during exercises in the west of the country.
The reform of the army, which began vigorously in 2014, is also being carried out in accordance with NATO standards. The ranks from the Soviet tradition are abandoned in favor of a Western classification. Kiev’s ties with NATO are being tightened until it obtains, in 2020, the status of “new opportunities” partner. Ukraine joins in this club countries close to NATO but not members of the organization, such as Finland, Sweden or Australia.
“One objective is obviously to make our army stronger, to develop more quickly, to obtain more sophisticated weapon systems, explains Mykhailo Samus, a Ukrainian military expert. But another aspect of this cooperation is that it allows us to strengthen our friendships and our links with the countries of the alliance. “
Although they do not take place within the framework of NATO, major purchases of weapons and military equipment have recently been concluded with member countries of the organization: very sophisticated anti-tank “Javelin” missiles. sold by Washington; ships bought from the United Kingdom and the United States, which should enable the country to resuscitate a war navy beheaded by the annexation of Crimea – Paris and Kiev have also agreed on the joint construction of twenty patrol boats intended for the guards – Ukrainian coasts; especially drones, the most visible indicators of close military and industrial cooperation between Ukraine and Turkey. The Bayraktar TB2, a Turkish combat drone operated by Ukraine since 2019, made powder speak for the first time on October 26, 2021 during a strike in eastern Ukraine.
A threat to the Russian Federation
Ukraine fails to join NATO, a trend that Vladimir Putin cannot digest. “Ukraine’s formal accession to NATO might not take place, but the military development of this territory is already taking place and this poses a threat to the Russian Federation”, thus released the Russian president on October 21, when Russian troops began to mass near the Ukrainian border.
“That’s why we have this crisis. Not so much because of the prospect of Ukraine joining NATO, but because the Russians consider that the current cooperation between NATO and Ukraine amounts to de facto membership, says Lawrence Freedman, professor emeritus of conflict studies at King’s College London. It’s important to understand Putin’s point of view, but you also have to see that this all stems from the actions he took in Ukraine in 2014. It was a huge error in judgment on his part and he is no longer possible to go back. “
Illustration of this development: the prospect of Ukraine joining NATO was only supported in 2009 by around 20% of the Ukrainian population; the rate now exceeds 50%, due to the annexation of Crimea and the conflict in the east of the country.
In search of a “clear signal”
However, can we establish a direct link between the Bucharest summit and, thirteen years later, the Russian demand for a freeze on NATO enlargement? The 2008 promise has given rise to very different interpretations for a decade.
In Kiev, the power in place is still counting on it: “NATO is asking for more reforms but Ukraine wants a clear signal regarding the possibility of membership. There is an imbalance in expectations ”, Judge Sergiy Solodkyy as well. For some western countries, including France, the Bucharest summit signs for the accession process of Ukraine and Georgia “A blockage, not a start”, explains François Heisbourg.
→ READ. Is Europe doomed to be a simple observer of its security?
Moscow sees things differently: “For Russia, the 2008 declaration created a situation of strategic uncertainty”, says Vladimir Frolov, a former Russian diplomat who is now a foreign policy analyst. “When Ukraine became a hostile state in 2014, this uncertainty became central to its perception of threats. “
A few weeks following the 2008 summit, Moscow inflicted a brutal military defeat on Georgia, also promised to the North Atlantic military alliance. The West now fears that, in order to prevent the rapprochement between Ukraine and NATO from continuing, Russia is ready to go on the offensive once more.
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A rapprochement once morest a background of friction
Avril 2008. NATO promises that Ukraine and Georgia “will become members”, but without offering a membership plan.
August 2008. Moscow inflicts a severe military defeat on Georgia.
Mars 2014. Vladimir Poutine signs the treaty enshrining the annexation of the Ukrainian peninsula of Crimea to Russia. A conflict between Ukraine and pro-Russian separatists erupted a few weeks later in eastern Ukraine and has since claimed more than 14,000 lives.
December 2014. The Ukrainian Parliament votes to withdraw Ukraine’s status as a “non-aligned” country.
June 2016. NATO announces a “package of assistance measures” for Ukraine.
February 2019. A constitutional amendment makes membership of the European Union and NATO a strategic direction for Ukraine.
June 2020. Ukraine obtains the status of “new opportunities” partner of NATO.
June 2021. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky asks Joe Biden “a clear answer, yes or no” on Ukraine’s accession to NATO.
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