Summary
[National Finance Macro: New non-agricultural employment in the United States may be underestimated in December]”Weak” non-agricultural employment is expected to trigger a “strong” interest rate hike, mainly due to the possibility of underestimation of non-agricultural new employment in December. It should be noted that in November and October, the number of new non-agricultural jobs increased from 531,000 and 210,000 to 648,000 and 249,000, respectively, continuing the upward revision trend since June.
The “weak” non-agricultural sector triggers the expectation of a “strong” rate hike, mainly due to the possibility of underestimated non-agricultural new employment in December. It should be noted that in November and October, the number of new non-agricultural jobs increased from 531,000 and 210,000 to 648,000 and 249,000, respectively, continuing the upward revision trend since June. In other words, the number of new non-agricultural jobs in December may be underestimated. At the same time, the high growth of average working hours and wages in December also points to the continued high prosperity of the US job market. In addition, the “weird” combination of new jobs and low unemployment rates is more affected by differences in statistical calibers. With the revision of institutional survey data, the deviation between the two may converge.
(Source: Zhitong Finance)
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