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Rubén Ruiz Ramas, vice dean of International Relations of the UNED, has been this Friday at the microphones of ‘Hora 25’ to analyze the situation of Kazakhstan and what reasons explain this wave of protests that has already left at least a score of deaths.
How has it destabilized so quickly?
The conflict is mainly explained by its internal dimension, not by the influence of foreign powers, as has been said by some sectors and by President Lukaev himself. This internal dimension is explained at the regional level, since already in 2011 there were protests in the same city and region, which ended with repression and the death of fourteen workers, who demanded better working conditions and wages. They were the largest protests in the history of the country, even the ones that are taking place now.
The current ones have been due to an increase in the price of gas, but it is at the bottom of a breeding ground that had been produced since 2008, although it was accentuated especially in 2014. There was a stagnation of the Kazakh economy, with declines marked GDP per capita of 40% between 2014 and the present, in addition to very notable reductions in average wages: from around 800 euros in 2013 to 500 today. To which is added that the minimum wage is 65 euros.
This has caused a plummet of the political regime itself, which is authoritarian and therefore its legitimacy comes from a developmental strategy. Until 2008 it had remained strong, with growth of 10% in the previous ten years. Therefore, the expectation for the middle classes and also the workers was that, progressively, their living conditions were going to improve over the years. This expectation has been frustrated and has significantly affected the legitimacy of the regime.
In addition to the regional and national, it is worth highlighting the very struggle between the different factions of the political elites that, organized in what can be called ‘clans of elites’, connect the hydrocarbon businesses with public offices. This helps to explain the dynamics and stability or not in this type of neo-patrimonial regimes, which are not the political organizations that we know in liberal democracies. It has been seen how, in just a few days, the president has decided to resolve the crisis by ceasing the government and also Sultan Nazarbayev, who had put himself as president of the security council, a position in the shadows to serve as a guarantee. and protect the work of the presidency, in addition to other public representatives. They have been replaced by people loyal to Tokayev.
What is the role of Russia?
Putin has made it clear that he will go as far as necessary so that Tokayev’s presidency is not affected. The question is, what will you claim in return for the services you are providing. One of the measures being considered is to establish Russian as the second official language throughout the state. Furthermore, in diplomatic terms, it might demand that there be recognition of Crimea as Russian territory.
