Jair Bolsonaro handing over the presidential scarf, in a year, to his successor: a simple democratic formality, this transfer of power now seems inconceivable with the leader of the Brazilian far right, who makes no secret of his intention to contest his possible defeat in the presidential election next October. The year 2022 promises to be tense in Brazil.
The largest country in Latin America is preparing for an unusual duel, between a president, Bolsonaro, and a former president, Lula, who regained his eligibility with the cancellation, in March, of the sentences targeting him for alleged corruption facts. So far, neither the “Trump of the tropics” nor the “father of the poor” have formally declared themselves as candidates.
But the polls are unanimous: carried by the memory of the prosperous years of his presidency (2003 to 2010), Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva, historic leader of the Workers’ Party (PT), is ultra-favorite, with 48% of the voting intentions . More than double those in favor of the current head of state, distant second with 22%.
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Lula might even win in the first round if the alliance he negotiates with the former right-wing governor of Sao Paulo, Geraldo Alckmin, candidate for the vice-presidency on his ticket, were to materialize. The boss of the left seems to be the only one capable of bringing together this Republican front which had failed in 2018 to block the far right. “There is a new understanding of the role that Lula can play to get Brazil out of this era of darkness in which Bolsonaro has plunged it, decrypts political scientist Joao Alexandre Peschanski. But the key to the vote remains the economy. The country is traumatized by the coronavirus pandemic which leaves, in addition to a very heavy human toll (618,000 deaths), a devastating socio-economic crisis. ”
“He is not an idiot, and that the PT did not understand”
Unemployment and underemployment affect 1 in 3 Brazilians. And 56% of the population, which has 212 million inhabitants, now suffers from food insecurity. However, 17 million poor and very poor households will start to receive a monthly allowance of 400 reais (around 63 euros). It is precisely on these new social assistance that Bolsonaro is counting to bounce back. “He is not stupid, and that, the PT did not understand, regrets Peschanski. Moreover, Lula’s party has still not found the right tone to bring back to its fold its former voters who voted Bolsonaro. ”
It will also be necessary to count with the third man of the poll: Sergio Moro, credited with 9% of the voting intentions. This former judge in charge of the sprawling anti-corruption operation Lava Jato had sent Lula to prison, before becoming Bolsonaro’s Minister of Justice … then breaking with the latter. “Moro is capable of eliminating Bolsonaro, even of taking votes from the left,” said expert Peschanski. At least, if there is an election.
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Because uncertainties hover over the young Brazilian democracy. Will Jair Bolsonaro attempt a coup if he fails to climb back up in the polls? What would the military do then, having returned to power with him? Politicized as never before, would the army accept a return of the left to power?
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