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The Lighthouse Research Institute and the Lighthouse Professional Edition unveiled the “2021 China Film Market Annual Report” on January 1st in Beijing, analyzing the previous year’s industry progress and forecasting future market trends, with a focus on the sector’s innovative scheduling and audience motivations.
The report indicates that the Chinese film market rebounded strongly in 2021, the first post-pandemic year. Total box office receipts reached 47.258 billion yuan, representing 74% recovery compared to pre-pandemic levels. A record 697 films were released, and the market expanded significantly in third and fourth-tier cities, which accounted for nearly 40% of the total share for the first time. Notably, fourth-tier cities experienced a faster recovery than first and third-tier cities, surpassing them in total audience numbers.
Regarding content, “Chinese Narrative” dominated the year’s cinematic landscape. Imported films claimed only 20% of the box office, a stark contrast to 2016’s figures. Domestic productions, particularly those emphasizing patriotic themes, flourished. “Changjin Lake,” achieved a record-breaking 5.77 billion yuan box office, exemplifying the enduring appeal of “Chinese narrative” themes.
Audience viewing habits in 2021 revealed a preference for short-term, holiday-centered moviegoing. Ticket sales peaked during the Spring Festival and National Day holidays. Fewer films were released outside these major periods, resulting in lower box office revenue. Of the 27 films that exceeded 200 million yuan in box office, 60% premiered during these peak seasons; the remaining 12, largely romance or crime/suspense films, launched during less favorable periods.
The romantic comedy “I Want Us Together” stands out, contributing significantly to the success of the “520” (May 20th) romantic holiday, generating 230 million yuan in box office revenue. The film’s strategic release at 13:14 on “520” enhanced its romantic appeal. Remarkably, viewers under 25 made up a substantial portion of the audience (second highest among films exceeding 200 million yuan), and group viewings constituted a high 72%, the highest of the year. ## China’s Cinema Market: A Rollercoaster Ride? Analyzing Conflicting Forecasts
The 2021 Beacon report on the Chinese film market, highlighting innovative scheduling and audience motivation, offers a fascinating snapshot of a dynamic industry (Source: Provided Text). However, piecing together current market forecasts paints a more complex picture, with projections varying wildly. The industry appears to be navigating a period of both growth and contraction, depending on the metric and the source.
Some sources predict robust growth. Statista, for example, forecasts a 7.36% annual growth rate between 2024 and 2029, culminating in a market volume of US$24.13 billion in 2029. [[1]] Another report by Renub projects the market to reach US$8.11 billion by 2028. [[2]] These optimistic outlooks suggest a strong, albeit potentially slowing, upward trajectory for the Chinese cinema market.
However, a contrasting narrative emerges from IbisWorld. Their data reveals a decline in the number of cinema businesses in China, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of -0.9% between 2019 and 2024. [[3]] This suggests consolidation within the industry, possibly due to factors such as increased competition or economic pressures. The discrepancy between the number of businesses and the overall market value highlights the importance of considering multiple factors beyond simple growth percentages.
The conflicting forecasts necessitate a nuanced interpretation. While the overall market value might be increasing, this growth could mask underlying challenges. The decrease in the number of cinemas suggests a potential shift in the industry landscape, perhaps towards larger, more sophisticated chains, or a focus on specific niche markets. The 2021 Beacon report’s emphasis on innovative scheduling and audience motivations suggests the industry is actively trying to adapt to changing consumer preferences and economic realities. Further research is needed to unravel these seemingly contradictory trends and understand the full picture of the evolving Chinese cinema market. The future success of this dynamic industry may depend on its ability to navigate these internal tensions while catering to evolving audience preferences.
