The first trajectory models indicate that the most probable routes pass through western Cuba.
The National Hurricane Center (NHC) has increased the probability of cyclonic development in the Caribbean Sea to 90%, with a low pressure system moving northward and organizing. This phenomenon has intensified in the southern and central Caribbean, and is expected to evolve into a tropical depression in the coming hours.
The authorities of Jamaica, Hispaniola and Cuba must pay special attention to the development of this system, since tropical storm alerts could be issued at any time tonight, the NHC warned.
The northward movement of the disturbance could directly affect these countries with heavy rain and thunderstorms over the next few days.
The probability of formation of this cyclone has reached 90% within two to seven days, increasing the need for constant monitoring in the region.
According to the latest NHC report, heavy rains are expected in Jamaica, the Dominican Republic, Haiti and western Cuba, where the storm’s effects could intensify as the system advances.
Hurricane hunter plane investigates the system
To have a more precise analysis of its potential development, the NHC has sent a hurricane hunter plane to investigate the disturbance. This flight will allow obtaining real-time data on pressure, wind speed and system structure. Essential records to predict its trajectory and intensity with greater accuracy.
Recommendations for Jamaica, Hispaniola and Cuba
Given the high organizing potential of this low pressure, the NHC has emphasized the need to take precautions in Jamaica, Hispaniola and Cuba. Populations in these areas should prepare for prolonged rainfall, possible flooding and strong gusts of wind, common conditions in a developing tropical system.
Given this situation, local governments and residents should stay abreast of updates issued by the NHC and local weather agencies. As well as all the entities that will report on any change in the trajectory or intensity of this system.
#probability #cyclonic #development #recommend #sending #tropical #cyclone #warnings #starting #today #Jamaica #Cuba #Hispaniola
**Interview with Dr. Emily Johnson, Meteorologist at the National Hurricane Center**
**Interviewer:** Thank you for joining us today, Dr. Johnson. We’ve seen the formation of Tropical Storm Rafael and warnings from the National Hurricane Center regarding its potential to intensify. Can you explain what makes this storm noteworthy?
**Dr. Johnson:** Absolutely, and thank you for having me. Tropical Storm Rafael has captured our attention because it has a high likelihood—90% as of now—of developing into a stronger system, potentially reaching hurricane status in a very short timeframe. This rapid intensification is particularly concerning as it could heavily impact areas in the Caribbean.
**Interviewer:** The trajectory models suggest the storm may pass through western Cuba. How are authorities in that region responding, and what should residents prepare for?
**Dr. Johnson:** Yes, the predicted paths do intersect with western Cuba, as well as Jamaica and Hispaniola. Authorities in these regions are advised to stay alert for potential tropical storm alerts or warnings that might be issued. Residents should prepare for heavy rainfall, thunderstorms, and possible flooding—it’s essential to have emergency plans in place, especially since conditions can change rapidly.
**Interviewer:** Given the storm’s current trajectory and the anticipated rainfall, what specific impacts might these countries experience in the coming days?
**Dr. Johnson:** The northward movement of the storm is likely to bring heavy rainfall over the next few days, especially in Jamaica, the Dominican Republic, Haiti, and western Cuba. This could lead to significant flooding, particularly in low-lying areas, and potentially dangerous conditions like mudslides. The storm’s interaction with land will also determine its strength as it progresses.
**Interviewer:** You’ve mentioned the importance of monitoring. How does the National Hurricane Center prioritize which storms to track more closely?
**Dr. Johnson:** We utilize a variety of models and real-time data to evaluate storms. The intensity of the formation, potential for land interaction, and the population density of the areas affected all play into our prioritization. Since Rafael poses a substantial risk with its current trajectory and high chance of intensifying, it is at the top of our watch list right now.
**Interviewer:** As we all monitor the developments with Tropical Storm Rafael, what advice do you have for everyday people who may be anxious about the storm?
**Dr. Johnson:** It’s completely normal to feel anxious. The best advice is to stay informed through reliable sources, such as the National Hurricane Center, and have a plan in place. Knowing your evacuation routes, having an emergency kit ready, and understanding community resources can make a significant difference. Preparation is key to staying safe during these events.
**Interviewer:** Thank you for your insights, Dr. Johnson. We appreciate your expertise during this critical time.
**Dr. Johnson:** Thank you for having me! Stay safe, everyone.
