2023-12-31 15:52:00
On December 22, 2023, Beijing, which had just experienced a blizzard, was still covered in snow and the weather was clear. According to investor Kashiwagi, except for being a bit cold, this was just a normal Friday.
On this day, Kashiwagi got up early and went to Haidian to see the project. He was so busy that he mightn’t get out until almost noon. When he came out of the company, he glanced at his phone as a habit. He met Bai Yang, a friend from another game investment circle, who sent him two pictures and asked: “Old Bai, what do you think regarding this?”
Kashiwagi, who was tired all morning, didn’t take a closer look. He subconsciously thought that it wouldn’t be a big deal and it wouldn’t be too late to wait until he got in the car to take a look. And when he got in the car and opened WeChat casually, he realized that every game-related group he was in was going viral. What was circulating was the two pictures Bai Yang sent him:
One is a screenshot of the “Measures for the Administration of Online Games” (Draft for Comments) (hereinfollowing referred to as the “New Regulations”). The words “Set user recharge limits” and “No forced battles shall be set up” on it are heart-breaking to read. The bark of cypress wood is numb;
The other picture showed Tencent’s stock price. The drop reminded him of the Huangguoshu Waterfall he had just visited in the summer.
Only then did Kashiwagi realize that something was wrong. As of the close of the day, Tencent’s stock price plummeted 12.35%, while other game companies also generally fell. NetEase was the worst affected, falling 24.60%.
Looking at the green stock price chart, Kashiwagi was confused – what happened?
Psychologically, grief can usually be divided into five stages. This series of reactions reflects a person’s self-defense and coping mechanism when dealing with major emotional shocks.
When I first received the news, most of the psychology in the gaming community can be described in one word:
“ah?”
Although it is still open for public comment, the new regulations were implemented with a swift and decisive response that far exceeded many people’s expectations.
In the gaming industry, supervision is not a “new friend” – everyone in the gaming industry has experienced at least one “version winter”; even if they are not in the industry, as long as they play games, they are probably concerned regarding “preventing addiction to minors”. “Understand something. But this time, things seem to be different.
There have long been rumors that policy changes in the gaming field will have a significant impact on manufacturers, so most of them will be notified privately in advance. Investor Bai Yang told Leifeng.com that in the cold winter of 2021 version numbers, several major manufacturers in China got the news, so one major company gradually stopped selling games as early as three months before the actual suspension of version numbers. Company investment, bundle up for winter.
But this time the new regulations obviously caught the two major companies Tencent and NetEase off guard – the battle between party games “Yuanmeng Star” and “Egg Boy Party” was in full swing, and both major companies were smashed. Invest heavily. According to Bai Yang’s estimate, Tencent invested more than one billion yuan in one week just for the purchase cost; other channels, as well as internal settlement costs for promotion through its own channels such as Tencent Video and QQ Music, are also not small.
(Leifeng.com is also continuing to pay attention to the game UGC Battle of Tianwang Mountain of the two games “Yuanmeng Star” and “Egg Boy Party”. You are welcome to add the author on WeChat: william_dong to exchange gossip and discuss cognition.)
If we had known that there would be such a shock, why would we fight a costly war now? Bai Yang believes that the two major companies Tencent and NetEase may not know regarding this new regulation.
In addition to putting a sudden brake on the purchase war of party games, the publication time coincides with the end of the year when major manufacturers review their business. The impact of the new regulations on the company’s stock price will inevitably make many major manufacturers decide to continue layoffs.
So some people joked that Byte Games had already had news in this regard, so they decided to decide whether to stay or stay before the new regulations to avoid being impacted.
Public opinion fermented into the followingnoon, and game stocks were still green and continued to fall. As some interpretations and rumors became rampant, the atmosphere in various investment groups gradually changed from confusion to excitement.
Someone took a screenshot of the WeChat Moments of a certain venture capital boss, and it clearly read: “We need to strictly investigate who is shorting Chinese assets. The price increased by 200 to 300 times during one lunch hour!”
Someone also posted a screenshot in the group. A large amount of money was invested in Tencent’s 300 put option that expired in six days on Thursday. In this way, when Tencent plummeted, it might earn more than 30 times; not only that, but even Someone bought a put option on Tencent 270 the day before. If he sells it at a high point, it will be a 500-fold profit.
When it’s time to get off work, many people are still upset. “Life has to go on.” Kashiwagi thought to himself, but the completion of the new regulations undoubtedly cast a haze on Kashiwagi’s weekend.
“Let the bullets fly for a while.” Jin Song, a game player, is still relatively optimistic. When he meets friends who have lost hope, he will always persuade them like this, hoping to make their Christmas weekend easier.
It is true that the new regulations are still being solicited for opinions, and all terms have not yet been finalized. Not every draft of the opinion solicitation that has received a lot of response on the Internet has been implemented, and there have been rumors of “withdrawal” circulating on the Internet. Moreover, many of the provisions in the new regulations are relatively vague, and there is still a certain amount of time and difficulty before they are implemented, so they will not have any immediate impact on them.
“Let the bullets fly for a while.” Jin Song, who said this, still had a trace of luck in his heart. He heard the gunfire in the distance, but the bullets might not hit him.
What makes Jin Song a little depressed is that as soon as the new regulations were issued, many companies began to actively respond to the still-unresolved draft, expressing their support for the new regulations and their plans to proactively adjust their games.
At the weekend, several game companies including Century Huatong, China Mobile Games, and NetEase also issued statements expressing support for the new regulations.
“Now you have to believe it if you don’t believe it,” Jin Song told Leifeng.com, “It’s still not advisable to take chances and be prepared to make adjustments at any time.”
Excited emotions consume a lot of people. Friday night passed, and Liu Ye, who is also an investor, hardly closed his eyes.
Compared with others, Liu Ye is calm and rational. She is not blindly pessimistic regarding the new regulations. On Friday followingnoon, when mourning was everywhere, she was still organizing colleagues to discuss the impact of the new regulations on the future of the game industry if it is implemented. Substantial impact.
Game version numbers can no longer be collected, and the trading of version numbers is restricted, which is essentially a positive factor;
The prohibition of daily login, first-time recharge, and continuous recharge will have a greater impact on the monthly card and pass modes, but in practical terms, as long as there are some avoidance of specific words, it may be possible to pass;
The prohibition of forced battles poses more challenges to SLG’s operating model, but perhaps users can be informed in the user agreement to confirm to avoid this risk;
Setting a recharge limit is a major disadvantage for low-DAU and low-ARPU games. China still has a large number of games supported by a few big players, and the quality is also uneven. They may disappear from the stage of history in the future.
Under such circumstances, major companies such as Tencent and NetEase, which have many large DAU high-quality games in the matrix, are likely to be the least severely affected; while some companies at the waist and tail may have to adjust their products. and even business strategy.
Although the level of quality of Chinese games is still insufficient, at least the revenue capabilities are still good, so Liu Ye also invested in some such companies. “The new regulations are not one-size-fits-all for the gaming field. Games with more high-quality content and healthier revenue will have greater room for survival in the future. Therefore, you must adjust your investment portfolio and find companies and products that will develop better in the future.”
Jin Song told Leifeng.com, “Every year, the State Press and Publication Bureau conducts training for game companies. In previous years, it mainly focused on review specifications and review standards, but last year it focused on the ‘classification, subject matter, and core of games.’ During the training, the expert particularly criticized the “consumer game” that pays for money, but spent nearly 40 minutes talking regarding “Persona 5” and the social value behind this game.
“This new regulation, I think, also sends a signal – the quality of games will indeed be a major trend in the future game market.”
On the evening of the 22nd, at a conference call organized by a securities company to discuss new game regulations, more than a hundred people participated, and investor Wu Tong was one of them. The speaker is an expert from the local edition and has participated in the formulation of many relevant policies. Hundreds of pairs of ears are waiting to know the board’s understanding of the new regulations and its plans for the future of the gaming industry.
The expert is young. Compared with the turbulence of public opinion in the game market, he seems a little puzzled. He said that there was a discussion on the draft as early as two years ago, and all major companies should have participated. The release of the second draft for comments only has clearer provisions and is not much different from the predicted results two years ago.
In fact, it is almost inevitable that the new “Interim Measures for the Administration of Online Games” will be completed – the previous “Interim Measures for the Administration of Online Games” was issued by the Ministry of Culture, and accordingly a license called “Wenwangwen” (Internet Culture Business License) was issued Certificate). Intermediary companies can apply for ICP certificates through this document, allowing game companies to obtain the version number. But now, many online game companies do not have Internet literacy certificates. As a result, many game operating companies cannot obtain ICP and can only seek agency companies to obtain version numbers. This policy vacuum is difficult to manage, and this new regulation is also intended to fill this management gap.
After adding this layer of restrictions, the next step is to fully localize the version number and fully delegate the authority to review the version number. With consistent policies for standardization, the application, review and issuance of version numbers will be smoother and more convenient, and the overall efficiency of issuance of version numbers will also be improved.
Regarding the explanation of specific terms, experts also said that the current regulations are still in the process of discussion and soliciting opinions, and there is still room for discussion on some unclear areas. In the future, supporting methods and regulations will also be introduced for areas such as IAA mini games. , to allow the industry to develop in a more orderly manner.
After the phone call, Wu Tong’s confidence has been restored to a certain extent: “I feel that some of the previous ‘threads’ have finally been connected – the tightening of online game management methods, if it means that there will be more version numbers and It must be a good thing for more benign and high-quality new games to enter the market. Moreover, the imported game version numbers released on Friday are significantly ahead of schedule, which may also be sending such a signal.”
“In 2016 or 2017, China might issue regarding 10,000 version numbers a year, but in recent years, it has issued 80 per month and only 1,000 per year, a shrinkage of regarding 90%. If policies can reduce the number of version numbers issued, The increase in the number of accounts issued will definitely be a positive factor for the industry.” Kashiwagi analyzed Leifeng.com (public account: Leifeng.com).
The Christmas Eve weekend has passed, and some people are happy and some are worried. Early on Monday morning, the Publishing Administration issued another version number for domestic games in December. Kashiwagi took a look and saw that there were as many as 105 version numbers issued this time, which was the first time in many years that it exceeded 100, and this seemed to confirm his idea.
For the Chinese game industry, among the most precious resources, “confidence” is definitely one of them.
In the cold winter of 2023, the new regulations issued are like a heavy snow – in the snow, people are waiting anxiously, waiting for the snow to melt, and they will see a desolate land under their feet, which is still moist and green with snow water. of malt.
(For further revisions of the new regulations and the future development of the game industry, please add the author on WeChat: william_dong for communication and discussion)
(Bomu, Baiyang, Jin Song, Liu Ye and Wu Tong are all pseudonyms in the article)
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