The South China sea: Hotspots to Watch in 2025
In recent years, the South China Sea has become a major flashpoint for geopolitical tensions. China’s assertive claims in this region have raised concerns among its neighbors and international players alike. Here are five key areas to watch closely in the year ahead:
Taiwan Strait
tensions in the Taiwan Strait have escalated substantially, -with nearly 3,000 incursions by Chinese aircraft into Taiwan’s air defence identification zone between January and November 2024. Two major military exercises, “Joint Sword A” and “Joint Sword B”, further heightened tensions, coinciding with vital political events on the self-ruled island.
Chinese President Xi Jinping reiterated in his New Year’s message that the reunification of Taiwan is ”unavoidable”. Shen Ming-Shih, a research fellow at Taiwan’s Institute for National Defense Security Research (INDSR), believes that “China will continue to hold exercises in 2025 if senior Taiwanese officials visit the United States or top U.S.officials visit Taiwan”.
While China will likely continue military exercises like joint fire strikes, blockades, and anti-access and area denial operations, their effectiveness may diminish as Taiwan develops stronger countermeasures, according to Shen. Ou Si-Fu, another INDSR fellow, believes that China is not yet prepared for a full-scale invasion of Taiwan.
“Xi is not confident with his army,” Ou said, citing recent high-level dismissals within the People’s Liberation Army (PLA). “The PLA has not fought a real war in a long time, so an imminent invasion of Taiwan is not expected,” Ou added. “They may be preparing their forces,but we are preparing,too.”
Taiwanese President Lai Ching-te affirmed his government’s commitment to enhancing defense capabilities, announcing an increase in the defense budget in his New Year’s message.
Scarborough Shoal
The situation at Scarborough Shoal, a chain of reefs within the Philippines’ exclusive economic zone but under de facto Chinese control, is a cause for concern.just before the New Year, the PLA southern Theater Command conducted large-scale combat readiness drills at the shoal, involving both naval and air force troops. Additionally, china’s coast guard maintains a constant and robust presence in the area.
Tensions Flare in the South China Sea: Philippines Locked in Disputes with China
Throughout 2024, the South China Sea remained a focal point of geopolitical tension as the Philippines and China found themselves locked in several maritime disputes. Beijing’s assertive actions have raised concerns among regional stakeholders, with the Scarborough Shoal and Second Thomas Shoal emerging as flashpoints.The Scarborough Shoal: Encroachment and Assertiveness
in a move seen as provocative, china established baselines around the Scarborough Shoal in November 2024, effectively claiming the disputed territory as its own. This unilateral declaration drew criticism from the philippines and its ally, the United States, who view the move as a violation of international law. “You cannot draw baselines if you don’t own the features,” stated former Philippine Supreme Court justice Antonio Carpio, emphasizing the illegality of China’s actions. He suggested that the Philippines should challenge this claim at an international tribunal. Despite China’s actions, Filipino fishermen continue to face restrictions in accessing their traditional fishing grounds around the shoal. In early December, the Chinese coastguard fired a water cannon at a Philippine fisheries bureau boat, escalating tensions in the area.
Lt. Cmdr. Lee Omaweng, commanding officer of the Philippine coast guard vessel BRP Sindangan, which serves at both Scarborough and Second Thomas Shoal, speaks to reporters on board his ship, Dec. 8, 2024.[RFA]
Second Thomas Shoal Standoff and Confrontation
The Second Thomas Shoal, also within the Philippines’ exclusive economic zone, has witnessed persistent stand-offs between the two countries. In 1999, Manila deliberately grounded an old warship, the BRP Sierra Madre, on the shoal to assert its claim. China’s coast guard has consistently interfered with philippine resupply missions to the BRP Sierra Madre and the troops stationed there. Tensions escalated on June 17,2024,when chinese coast guard personnel,armed with pikes and machetes,attacked Philippine boats,puncturing them and seizing firearms during a resupply operation. A Filipino sailor was wounded in the unprecedented confrontation. While both sides later called for de-escalation, the situation remained tense. On December 12, China finally granted permission for the Philippines to resupply the BRP Sierra Madre.Tensions Rise in the South China Sea as Island Building Continues
The South China Sea remains a flashpoint in the Indo-Pacific region as tensions escalate between China, the Philippines, and Vietnam over territorial claims and expanding military presence. Recent events, including a near-collision between Chinese and Philippine vessels and the ongoing construction of artificial islands, highlight the complex and increasingly volatile situation in the contested waters. In August, a Chinese coast guard ship came dangerously close to colliding with a Philippine vessel carrying supplies to a grounded warship on Second Thomas Shoal, part of the Spratly Islands. The shoal is claimed by both the Philippines and China, triggering a diplomatic standoff and raising concerns about the potential for conflict. The Philippines maintains the BRP Sierra madre, a World War II-era warship, is legally grounded on the shoal for humanitarian purposes. The incident underscored the fragility of the region’s security architecture and the growing militarization of the south China Sea. China, which claims sovereignty over nearly the entire sea, has been aggressively expanding its military presence in the region, constructing artificial islands with airfields and missile batteries. These actions have drawn condemnation from the Philippines and other regional actors who see them as a threat to regional stability and freedom of navigation.Philippines Enhances Defense Strategy
in response to the increasing challenge posed by China’s assertive stance, th Philippines is strengthening its maritime defense capabilities. Manila is pursuing a three-pronged strategy: establishing a robust presence in disputed areas, bolstering its military deterrence capabilities through modernization, and deepening cooperation with like-minded partners like the United States and Japan. The U.S. and the Philippines have a longstanding Mutual Defense Treaty, which obligates both nations to support each other in the event of an armed attack. The U.S. military has set up Task Force Ayungin, named after the Filipino name for Second Thomas Shoal, highlighting its commitment to supporting Manila’s presence in the disputed area. General Romeo Brawner jr., Chief of the Philippine armed forces, emphasized the country’s determination to defend its territorial claims. He stated that the Philippines will not abandon its position at Ayungin Shoal, showcasing a firm stance against Chinese pressure.Vietnam’s Island Building Surges
Vietnam, another claimant in the South China Sea, is also engaged in considerable island building activities. According to a study by the Asia Maritime Clarity Initiative (AMTI), Vietnam’s land reclamation efforts in the first six months of 2024 reached historic highs, equaling the total area created in both 2022 and 2023 combined. Between November 2023 and June 2024,vietnam created 692 acres of new land across ten features in the Spratly archipelago. While Vietnam’s land reclamation activities are less extensive than China’s, AMTI notes that Hanoi continues to surprise observers with the scale and scope of its dredging and landfill operations in the Spratly Islands.Vietnam Expands Claims in South China Sea with New Airstrip
Vietnam’s military presence in the contested South China Sea is expanding rapidly. Satellite images reveal the near-completion of a new 3,000-meter airstrip on Barque Canada Reef.This growth follows a dramatic increase in land reclamation, with the total area more than doubling in just one year to nearly 2.5 square kilometers by October 2024.![satellite image of barque Canada Reef, May 11, 2024. [AMTI/Maxar Technologies]](https://www.benarnews.org/english/news/philippine/rfa-scs-5-things-4.png/@@images/aa216963-03ae-4e56-8bd7-3882debc3158.png)
ASEAN Grapples with South China Sea Code of Conduct
As malaysia takes over the chairmanship of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) from Laos, the perennial question of a legally binding code of conduct (COC) for the South China Sea resurfaces. Negotiations for a COC between China and ASEAN countries began in 2002 with the signing of the Declaration of Conduct of parties in the South China Sea. Despite Beijing’s repeated assurances that progress is being made, more than two decades later, critically important obstacles remain.“We are striving for early conclusion” of the code of conduct. Premier Li Qiang told an ASEAN summit in October. China lays claim to nearly 90% of the south China Sea, overlapping with the territorial claims of Brunei, Malaysia, the Philippines, and Vietnam.The South China Sea Code of Conduct (COC) negotiations remain stalled,raising concerns about the future of peace and stability in the region. While China vehemently opposes any perceived politicization of the COC or external meddling, its assertive stance has fueled some countries to seek support outside ASEAN.
A Snail’s Pace
“Negotiations on the COC are progressing at a glacial pace,” former Thai Foreign Minister Kantathi suphamongkhon remarked in an October interview with reuters. This sentiment is echoed by others.
Unrealistic Expectations?
Philippine legal expert and former Supreme Court Justice Antonio Carpio believes reaching an agreement is highly improbable. “China will never agree to certain provisions, Vietnam to others, and so on,” he stated, suggesting a fundamental lack of consensus. “Therefore, the 2026 target for concluding the COC is unrealistic.”
ASEAN’s Internal Divisions
Complicating matters further is ASEAN’s own internal divisions and perceived weakness. Isha gharti, a public policy professor at Chiang Mai University in Thailand, highlights the potential solution: “ASEAN could strengthen its collective bargaining power by aligning the interests of its member states and speaking with a unified voice in negotiations with external powers like China.”
The question remains: how will Malaysia, the new chair of ASEAN, work to unify the bloc and amplify its voice in the COC negotiations?
