5 Reasons Why Abiy Ahmed Visited Sudan

Sudan – Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed arrived in Port Sudan yesterday, Tuesday, on his first visit since the outbreak of armed clashes in Sudan in mid-April last year between the army and the Rapid Support Forces, during which he held closed talks with the Chairman of the Sovereignty Council and Commander-in-Chief of the Sudanese Army, Abdel Fattah Al-Burhan.

The Sudanese conflict file occupies an advanced position in terms of importance for the Ethiopian side, due to the intertwining of interests in their security, geographical, political and economic dimensions, just as Ethiopia is considered important from a geopolitical perspective for Sudan, and there are still open disputed files between them, including the Renaissance Dam and the borders.

The visit represents a major shift in the Ethiopian position on what has been happening for a year and a half of war in Sudan, and analysts have attributed this to the following five reasons.

• First – Engineering the post-Bashir era:

Ethiopia is a major contributor to the engineering of the post-2019 ouster of former President Omar al-Bashir, during which Abiy Ahmed personally followed the series of meetings and negotiations between civilians and the military that resulted in the political partnership agreement in what was known as the constitutional document. Addis Ababa became the capital closest to Khartoum and the ruling political forces led by resigned Prime Minister Abdullah Hamdok, and the Ethiopian leader was looking forward to reaping the fruits of this politically, domestically and regionally.

Analysts believe that the outbreak of war, Abiy Ahmed’s position that seemed to support the Rapid Support Forces, his leadership of regional movements to besiege the Sudanese government and consider it unqualified to rule, and his demand to ban the Sudanese army from flying are all factors that have placed him in the circle of opponents. Therefore, the visit may be aimed at reducing losses and achieving some gains at a time when the Sudanese army has been able to regain its balance on the battlefield.

• Second: Competition with Cairo:

Egypt, Ethiopia’s arch-rival, succeeded in bringing together all shades of the Sudanese political spectrum at a conference in Cairo three days ago, where the Egyptian move was praised, welcomed and generally welcomed by Sudan for the momentum it created that Addis Ababa failed to create, despite the fact that it has been hosting some active Sudanese opposition forces with strong Western support since the outbreak of the war, which have often been accused of involvement in what is happening due to their failure to clearly condemn the Rapid Support Forces’ violations in Sudan.

• Third: The proximity of the battles to the Renaissance Dam:

The extension of the fighting to the south of the Blue Nile and its proximity to the site of the Ethiopian Renaissance Dam, which is regarding 40 kilometers from the Sudanese border, frightens the Ethiopian side and may threaten the progress of work on the dam and perhaps target it unintentionally as a result of the exchange of shelling, in addition to the fact that the Rapid Support Forces are mostly unruly forces accused of committing widespread violations in Sudan.

Some analysts do not rule out that it will infiltrate Ethiopia if the ferocity of the fighting forces it to do so, and there is fear that it will be recruited to harm the Ethiopian side, especially since it includes mercenaries from several countries in the region who work for money. Developments in this direction might explode the situation in the entire region, at a time when relations with its former ally, Eritrea, have deteriorated.

• Fourth: Conflicts between the Amhara and Tigray tribes:

The existence of conflicts and tensions in the areas of the Amhara, Tigray and Afar tribes near the eastern border of Sudan might turn into a large-scale war, as happened with the Tigray, who almost reached the capital, Addis Ababa, two years ago, before reaching a fragile agreement to stop the fighting, followed a few days ago by a national reconciliation conference that Abiy Ahmed fears that any border confrontations will cause its collapse.

• Fifth – Berbera Port:

Ethiopia needs to neutralize Sudan’s position on the Berbera Port Agreement, which Addis Ababa signed with the Somaliland region and to which Somalia, Eritrea and Egypt have openly opposed.

Sudan’s formal accession to these positions would constitute a political pincer once morest Abiy Ahmed, and the agreement with the Somaliland region would affect relations with Djibouti, from which Ethiopia leases a port on the Red Sea, which is the main artery for this landlocked country.

Source: Al Jazeera