Each week, the monthly weather trend is updated. This covers the period from July 25 to August 21 and concerns the major summer school holidays as well as the end of the harvest and the start of the grape harvest. This trend highlights a slight decline in heat next week, except in the southeast. A new peak of high heat should occur in early August followed by a few thunderstorms. The drought will continue. Thunderstorms are not expected to make up the shortfall.
Very hot and lastingly dry weather has settled over the country since the beginning of July, except for a few stormy showers that are not enough to offset the drought. If the temperatures drop a little during the week, this month of July should nevertheless rank among the 3 hottest and driest since the beginning of the weather records.
Week from July 25 to 31: heat more bearable but still rainy…
This last week of July will be marked by more mixed and cooler weather with the orientation of the flow to the west to northwest sector accompanied by oceanic air. However, time will not be disturbed; count on fewer long days of good weather with cloudy periods but few showers or thunderstorms. The heat will become bearable once more, except in the southeast where the high temperatures are expected to last with a significant risk of fires on windy days.
Week of 1is to August 7: new peak of high heat followed by thunderstorms
A cold drop might form off Portugal, once more raising fears of a rise in temperatures from the southwest. It is difficult to be precise at this time, but the level of temperatures in the country will once once more depend on the positioning of this cold drop. A priori, the south would be the most affected by the high temperatures, even if the latter might temporarily rise in the north. The cold drop might, this time, bring up instability with heavier and stormy weather. Again, these storms will be dispersed and not everyone should be in the same boat.
Week of August 8 to 14: summer weather with more reasonable heat
A fine summer weather should prevail over the country bordering an anticyclone located on the British Isles. The sun would prevail over most of our regions with at most a few heat storms at the end of the day in the south and east of the country, especially near the reliefs. Temperatures would return a little lower but still above normal for the season.
Week of August 15 to 21: more unstable and stormy weather in the south
This 3rd week of August might see the weather become more unstable in the south with frequent stormy showers from the Alps to the Mediterranean hinterland as well as near the Pyrenees. The reliability of this weather trend remains limited at this time, but this more unstable trend would be good news for regions affected by very intense and long-lasting drought. The northern half of the country might remain under the influence of anticyclonic conditions with dry and fairly sunny weather.
This month of July will therefore end with a clear rainfall deficit despite the few storms expected. Temperatures will drop slowly, while remaining above normal for the season. The beginning of August might be warmer once more with the specter of strong heat, at least in the south. It will therefore be necessary to monitor this period. Finally, we should find cooler conditions around the second ten days of August with more stormy weather in the south.
Next update, Thursday, July 28 at 5 p.m.
