The resignation of MK Edith Silman left the Israeli scene in front of 3 scenarios; Either the government stays, Benjamin Netanyahu returns, or early elections.
The sudden resignation of a Knesset member from the Yamina party led by Prime Minister Naftali Bennett shook the Israeli political scene, which has been preoccupied with other issues over the past months.
After Prime Minister Naftali Bennett spent hours traveling or on the phone trying to mediate the Russia-Ukraine crisis, he found himself in a very difficult internal crisis.
The crisis, which has come to be called the “Hametz crisis”, opened the door wide open in the Israeli political scene to possibilities that politicians had not considered until dawn on Wednesday.
The crisis was called the “Hamez crisis” because Representative Silman announced her resignation once morest the background of a letter sent by the Israeli Minister of Health to hospitals according to which he allowed the entry of “Hamez” foods during the Jewish holiday of Passover next week.
Judaism forbids hametz foods during the week of Passover, which include wheat, oats, spelt and wheat.
With the withdrawal of observers, the crisis has left the Bennett government as a “lame duck”, which can remain, but it will not be able to pass legislation in the Knesset because it has the support of 60 of the 120 Knesset seats.
But at the beginning of 2023, the government will find itself forced to resign because it will not be able to gain the confidence of the Israeli Knesset to pass the budget.
And Israeli Prime Minister Bennett may stay and try to change this reality until the beginning of next year.
But this scenario may not go as Bennett wants, as the latter may find himself obliged to submit the resignation of his government if the Likud party, led by Benjamin Netanyahu, succeeds in wooing another deputy from the parties supporting the government, which Netanyahu does not hide that he is seeking.
In such a case, the Knesset will be dissolved and early elections called, and then Foreign Minister Yair Lapid will become the interim head of the government until a new government is formed following the elections.
However, there is another possibility, which is that former Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu will be able to form a new government, relying on the right-wing parties that support him, as well as the right-wing parties in the government, such as the (New Hope) party headed by Gideon Sa’ar.
This possibility carries with it another trend, which is for Netanyahu to allow another member of the right to form a government that includes all right-wing parties that have the Knesset seats that enable them to form a government.
And lawmakers from the Israeli right have said they are ready to join a government that includes (Likud), but is not headed by Netanyahu, who is facing accusations of corruption.
In an article in the Israeli newspaper, Haaretz, followed by Al-Ain Al-Akhbar, Israeli political analyst Anshel Pfeiffer identified 4 factors that are now controlling the Israeli scene. The first is that the government no longer enjoys a majority in the Knesset, as well as the opposition; The two sides reached a dead end and entrenched themselves at 60 deputies each.
The second is that the government’s standing has suffered a serious blow, but its downfall is still not guaranteed and will require complex political maneuvers. The third element is that the government might survive, for now, if there were no more defectors.
The fourth element is that dissolving the Knesset and pushing Israel into new elections is more likely than Netanyahu obtaining a majority in the current Knesset.
“Rep. Silman has always been one of the coalition’s weakest links…a young, inexperienced politician living in a religious community, where she and her family have been under constant criticism for the past 10 months for their service in an anti-Jewish government,” he said.
He added, “Even her husband Shmulik was openly plotting to engineer the split. The husband reportedly agreed with those close to Benjamin Netanyahu that his wife would get a guaranteed place on the list of Likud candidates in the upcoming elections and would be health minister in the event Netanyahu forms a government.”
Anshel Pfeiffer pointed out that “the expectation was that the fall of the government would result from a security crisis, like another war in Gaza, which the United Arab List cannot support.”
“In the end, the cause of the crisis was an absurd argument with Health Minister Nitzan Horowitz over the most ambiguous issue: hospitals’ compliance with the High Court of Justice ruling that prevents security guards from searching visitors’ bags for ‘hamets’ during Passover.”
Pfeffer believed that “the government can, at least for the time being, live without a majority, as long as there are no additional dissidents. After the approval of the state budget, the government has on paper another 11 months before the deadline to pass the next budget in March 2023.”
He said, “Eleven months is a long time in Israeli politics, and if the remaining sixty members of the coalition stick to its support, it means that the government will live, without a majority, without being able to pass any serious legislation, but lame governments are not rare.”
And he added, “For any other scenario to happen, there must first be more defections. If it happens, the next possible outcome is a majority vote in the Knesset for new elections.”
“This appears to be a possible scenario,” he added.
Pfeffer notes that Netanyahu needs the support of 61 Knesset members to form his new government.
“With Silman’s defection, the opposition currently has 60 members, but six of the Knesset members are from the Arab Joint List who would never support Netanyahu, effectively leaving him with only 54 seats,” he said.
He continued, saying, “Without another election, a new government for Netanyahu is not a very likely scenario.”
Can anyone else form a government?
Pfeffer believes that “at this point, it appears that the best opportunities will be with Defense Minister Benny Gantz. He has worked to keep his channels open to key parts of the opposition.
He added, “Can Gantz entice the opposition parties to join a government he leads, while convincing enough of those currently in the coalition? It would be a complicated feat but still a possible scenario.”
Another Likud party leader?
Pfeffer also saw that “a third potential candidate to form a government, an unspecified member of the Likud other than Netanyahu.”
He stated in this regard that “Likud is the largest party in the Knesset, so it is logical that it should be the basis for a new majority.”
And he added, “But Netanyahu will have to give up leadership at least temporarily, which is something he is unlikely to do without signing a plea deal in his corruption case.”
“For now, the most likely scenario is a return to the situation that existed for most of 2019-2021 when the government was paralyzed, without a majority to legislate,” Pfeffer considered.
“Just as Netanyahu was during that period, Bennett is currently in office but he has no authority,” he added.
