38 investment banks forecast non-agricultural jobs in September: Unemployment is expected to remain flat but job creation is expected to slow!Gold price is expected to shock upside
At 20:30 Beijing time on Friday (October 7), the United States will announce the seasonally adjusted changes and unemployment rate for September. On Thursday (October 6), 38 large investment banks, including Citi and Goldman Sachs, released their forecasts for the data, as follows.
According to the forecast of 38 large investment banks, the major investment banks believe that the growth rate of non-agricultural agriculture will further decline in September, and the difference in growth expectations between investment banks is not large. Specifically, the U.S. non-farm payrolls growth rate is expected to be between 200,000 and 337,000 following seasonal adjustment in September, compared with the expected median of 250,000 (previous value of 315,000), and the unemployment rate is expected to be between 3.6% and 3.8%. The value is 3.7% (previous value 3.7%), average hourly earnings are expected to increase at an annual rate of 4.9%-5.3%, and the median forecast is 5.2% (previous value 5.2%).
Compared with the previous value, the investment bank believes that the non-agricultural performance in September will continue to be strong, but the growth rate will be reduced. In contrast, the unemployment rate and average hourly earnings are basically the same as the previous value.
Bets on a strong U.S. non-farm payroll in September increased on Thursday, as the employment sub-index of the ISM Services PMI showed a strong performance and ADP payrolls also came in stronger than expected. The further negative impact of gold may be limited. Even if it is slightly under pressure in the short-term, it may quickly turn from a decline to an increase. On the contrary, if the non-agricultural data in September is in line with expectations or worse than expected, the price of gold will still tend to fluctuate upwards.
If the non-farm payrolls data is unexpectedly particularly strong, it may weigh on gold prices and need to pay close attention to the performance of the US dollar and US bond yields.
At 12:27 on October 7, Beijing time, spot gold was reported at $1,711.85 per ounce.
