The latest quotation of SCFI Composite Index (Shanghai Export Container Freight Index) fell for 5 consecutive weeks and hit a new low since late July last year. With the weakening of sea freight rates, the air freight market conditions also stagnated slightly. From China Airlines (2610-TW), EVA Air (2618-TW) Cargo revenue in the second quarter did not significantly strengthen, reflecting that there has not been a wave of small peak seasons following China’s unblocking. In the case of shipping space, air freight rates are doubted to weaken, depending on the performance of the traditional peak season in the fourth quarter.
From the perspective of China Airlines’ operating revenue, the monthly operating revenue in the first half of this year were 12.776 billion yuan, 9.293 billion yuan, 10.709 billion yuan, 10.743 billion yuan, 10.685 billion yuan and 10.211 billion yuan, respectively. EVA Air’s operating revenue in the first half of the year was 9.445 billion yuan. 100 million yuan, 7.079 billion yuan, 8.993 billion yuan, 9.16 billion yuan, 9.23 billion yuan and 8.444 billion yuan. Although the air transport performance of the Air Shuangxiong has remained stable, it also shows that following China’s unblocking, no obvious shipments have been seen. This trend reflects the slowdown in demand in the European and American markets.
It is understood that due to the relatively low season of air freight, the air freight rate from Shanghai to the United States and West is regarding per kilogram.RMB 40 yuan, although the performance is better than the off-season before the epidemic, but the freight forwarder does not hesitate to say that part of it reflects the additional cost of fuel. In fact, the air freight rate has dropped to the low point following the outbreak.
At the same time, the demand for sea freight is slowing down, which indirectly affects the volume of air freight. After the shipper evaluates the transportation efficiency and cost, the sea-to-air dividend during the past epidemic has almost disappeared.
On the other hand, as airline passenger traffic began to increase and recover, the belly of passenger aircraft increased cargo space, and the tight supply situation was greatly eased.
There is no denying that the traditional peak season for mass shipments in the electronics industry is usually following September. However, it seems that air freight may not be booming at present. The reason is that overbooking has caused high inventory in the past. New orders will be placed. “Frankly speaking, we do not see a favorable environment for air freight at the moment. Airlines have begun to cut their schedules and transfer chartered goods to scheduled flights.”
China Airlines also pointed out that the shortage of materials has led to the slow resumption of work and shipments in China, while the capacity of various airlines has gradually recovered, and the overall space has been oversupplied. Coupled with the impact of oil price changes and inflation, the performance of cargo exports is relatively unstable.
Therefore, China Airlines will first seize key supply sources such as semiconductor machines, high-end electronic equipment and vehicle materials, and give priority to selling high-priced seats.
However, according to IATA’s forecast, the air freight market will increase by 5% this year. Once the peak season at the end of the third quarter gradually arrives and the shipments of high value-added products increase, the freight rate is still expected to rise gradually.
On the whole, whether the freight market is by sea or by air, the supply structure may have been loosened in the past. As the peak season of shipping is not as hot as expected, it remains to be seen whether the peak season for air transport can be successfully ushered in in the fourth quarter.
