2025 GDP calculation reduced

MEXICO CITY (El Universal).— Private sector analysts slightly reduced their growth estimate for Mexico’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) at the end of 2025 and maintained their outlook of 2.4% for 2024 for the sixth consecutive time, according to the “Citibanamex Expectations Survey (ECE)” published yesterday.

“For 2025, GDP growth is now projected at 1.8% from 1.9% a fortnight ago,” said the consensus collected from 35 analysis groups from different banks, brokerage houses and other “traders” and “brokers.”

In the following year, the lowest estimated advance for Mexican GDP was 1%, predicted by Bank of America and the maximum of 3.3%, expected by Masari Casa Bolsa.

For 2024, analysts maintained their growth projection of 2.4%, unchanged for the sixth consecutive fortnight, with the minimum of 1.4% expected by XP Investments, and the maximum of 3.4% by Barclays and Masari Casa de Bolsa.

According to Government projections, the Mexican economy could grow up to 3.5% in 2024, driven by the arrival of companies to the country due to the relocation of global supply chains, a phenomenon known as “nearshoring.”

In the recent survey carried out by the Bank of Mexico, private sector experts maintained their growth forecast of 2.4% for this year and also reduced it from 1.94% to 1.8% for 2025.

Meanwhile, private analysts maintained general inflation expectations for 2024, at 4.1% for the second consecutive time, and placed the underlying inflation slightly above at 4.1%, from 4.08% previously.

For 2025, they marginally increased forecasts for headline inflation to 3.71% from 3.7% and slightly decreased core inflation to 3.69%, from 3.7%. For the period 2026-2030 they expressed an average of 3.6%, an improvement from 3.68% in the previous survey.

The Citibanamex Survey maintains the expectation that the first cut in the interest rate will occur at Thursday’s meeting of the Bank of Mexico and predicts that the interest rate will be positioned at 9.5% at the end of the current year. “The median estimate for the interest rate at the end of 2024 remained unchanged at 9.50%, with estimates ranging between 8.25% and 10.25%,” the publication stated. Meanwhile, for 2025, the forecast for the interest rate in Mexico remained at 7.5%. The analysts consulted also expressed expectations “of a stronger peso” for the exchange rate, with the consensus projecting the Mexican peso at 18.2 pesos per dollar at the end of 2024. For next year, the consensus of the specialists projected a parity of the Mexican peso with the dollar at 19.