2024-01-16 16:25:16
2024-01-17 00:25 United Daily News Editorial President Tsai Ing-wen said that the United States sent a cross-party senior delegation to visit Taiwan after our election, highlighting the close and solid ties between Taiwan and the United States…
Lai Ching-te, a pragmatic Taiwan independence worker, was elected president, and both the United States and China couldn’t wait to take action. The United States immediately sent a high-level delegation to Taiwan, in the name of communicating its position, but in reality to “manage” cross-strait risks. The Chinese Communist Party even took advantage of the fact that the US delegation was still in Taiwan and rushed out quickly to seize Nauru, our diplomatic partner. The moment Lai Ching-te won the election, the dangers on both sides of the Taiwan Strait began to escalate; his record of violent confrontations was so vivid that he had to be personally warned by the United States.
In this election, 40% of the people who support the Green Party will determine the direction of Taiwan in the next four years, while 60% of the people who support political party rotation and cross-strait peace are forced to bear the consequences together. The key to the solution to the crisis is still in Lai Qingde’s hands. Before the election, Lai Ching-te boasted that if he was elected, the risk of cross-Strait war would be lowest, and the CCP would change its cross-Strait policy. This kind of statement, thinking that the world revolves around him, is extremely arrogant. In his election speech, he emphasized that he would replace containment with exchanges and confrontation with dialogue to achieve the goal of peace and co-prosperity. But on the same day, US President Biden sent a message to Lai Qingde: We do not support Taiwan independence. As for the CCP, the Nauru raid is just the appetizer, and military and economic countermeasures will follow.
Before the election, Liu Jianchao, the Liaison Minister of the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China, went to the United States early to draw a red line to the United States and discuss how to manage China-U.S. relations after Taiwan’s election. The United States demanded that the CCP not put military pressure on Taiwan and sent a delegation to Taiwan to communicate with Lai Qingde in person, making it clear that it wanted to control cross-strait tensions. The Chinese Communist Party first launched a diplomatic offensive. On one hand, it slapped Tsai Ing-wen’s line that Lai Ching-te followed. On the other hand, it demonstrated to the United States in strategic competition in the South Pacific. It also turned the Taipei Act, which the United States helps Taiwan consolidate its diplomatic relations and international status, into wallpaper.
But the whole world is awake, but Lai Qingde is drunk alone. When Chen Shui-bian took office in 2000, he cautiously made the declaration of “four nos and one no”, saying that he was willing to dialogue with the mainland with the greatest goodwill. Later, he became emboldened, and then he made random collisions and became a troublemaker. Before he was elected, Lai Ching-te said that if he was elected, China would have the opportunity to review its Taiwan policy. When he was elected, he boasted that “this is the first victory of the democratic camp” and “resisted external intervention.” This not only exposes his astonishing ignorance of the Chinese Communist Party, but also his extremely reckless attitude towards Taiwan’s security. His remarks were exactly the same as Tsai Ing-wen’s statement that “if the election is successful, even China will adjust in the direction of the DPP.” As a result, the CCP did adjust its direction, and missiles, military aircraft and aircraft carriers were all aimed at Taiwan. Lai Ching-te has not yet taken office, but the CCP has already begun to “revise” its Taiwan policy.
In particular, Lai Ching-te viewed his victory as the Taiwanese people’s choice of democracy, rejection of authoritarianism, and successful resistance to the intervention of external forces. His speech revealed a high-pitched anti-China sentiment. Before the election, Lai Ching-te scorned the Republic of China (Constitution) as a myth and a disaster. Although he changed his tune after the election, he would maintain the status quo in accordance with the constitutional system of the Republic of China. However, if he refuses to recognize the Constitution of One China and only wants to use it as a backdoor, it will still be impossible for cross-strait exchanges and dialogue. There can be no peace and stability in the Taiwan Strait. What’s more, Tsai Ing-wen made such a declaration when she took office, and the CCP regarded it as an unfinished answer sheet; Lai Qingde copied it, making it even less likely to complete the answer sheet.
Lai Qingde will face more severe tests than Tsai Ing-wen in military, diplomacy, economic and trade. Lai Qingde should consider the suggestions of three American scholars including Glaser: effective deterrence requires reliable “intimidation” and “guarantee.” Cai and Lai only emphasized threats, including sky-high price of armaments, extended military service for young people, and nationwide street fighting, but lacked reliable guarantees. Glacier and others also suggested that Lai Ching-te should freeze the Taiwan Independence Party platform to make his commitment to maintaining the status quo more credible.
In addition, Lai Qingde should convince Xi Jinping in some form that peaceful reunification is still possible across the Taiwan Straits. This is actually not difficult, as long as it is declared: If the political and economic and social conditions on both sides of the Taiwan Strait gradually converge, and the people’s political participation, property rights, and civil rights are fully guaranteed, the two sides of the Taiwan Strait can further sit down to discuss the goals and prospects of peaceful reunification. Otherwise, for Xi Jinping, if peaceful reunification is hopeless, the only option left is military reunification.
Lai Ching-te must take seriously the 60% of public opinion that supports cross-strait peace. This is an important support for cross-strait dialogue and peace. With Tsai Ing-wen in power, diplomacy has collapsed, military wars are in danger, and economic and trade storms are looming; it will be difficult for Lai Qingde to drag on like this for another four years. Time is running out, so please come up with a reliable guarantee! (Series 4 of “Changes in the 2024 General Election”)
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