2024-03-13 18:41:03
Spring Training is in full swing as we prepare for the 2024 regular season. That means it’s a good time to analyze projections and see how things might go this year. As usual, home runs are at the center of that conversation.
Thanks to FanGraphs’ Steamer system, we searched for the player from each team who was projected to lead each team in home runs in 2024.
As a general reminder, the projections are conservative in nature and are not designed to predict extraordinary seasons.
Blue Jays: Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (36)
Leader in 2023: Guerrero (26)
Guerrero has led the Blue Jays in home hits for three consecutive years and is projected to do so once more. Vlad Jr. hasn’t reached the heights of 2021 (48 home runs, 167 OPS+), but he’s entering his age-25 season and the quality of his hitting suggests he’s ready for a big 2024.
Orioles: Anthony Santander (29)
Leader in 2023: Santander/Gunnar Henderson (28)
Santander leads Orioles hitters with a combined 79 home runs since 2021 and has hit at least 28 in each of the last two seasons. The switch-hitter hits the ball like the best power hitters in the game, but he excels at hitting fly balls to his side, the optimal recipe for long hits.
Rays: Isaac Paredes (26)
Leader in 2023: Paredes (31)
Mexican Paredes used his talent to make contact and hit the ball a lot in a breakout season in 2023. He became the fourth player in the pitch-tracking era (since 2008) with a 30-homer year in which all of his home runs were pulling the ball. The quality of contact he makes isn’t spectacular, but he doesn’t need to be when he lifts the ball so high into his hand.
Red Sox: Rafael Devers (36)
Leader in 2023: Devers (33)
Since becoming an everyday player in 2018, Devers has hit 162 homers, a number surpassed only by 14 batters. Devers has three 30+ home run years under his belt and consistently ranks among the league’s best in home runs, hard hit percentage and average exit velocity.
Yankees: Aaron Judge (46)
Leader in 2023: Judge (37)
Judge is the undisputed home run king right now. After his AL-high 62 homers in 2022, he followed that up with 37 in just 106 games in 2023. Assuming Judge is healthy for a full season, there’s no reason to believe he mightn’t have a third 50-homer season. of his career.
Guardians: José Ramírez (28)
Leader in 2023: Ramírez (24)
Dominican Ramírez is as reliable as ever and continues to produce solid numbers overall. From a power perspective, he has hit at least 23 home runs in every full year – excluding the COVID-19 shortened season in 2020 – since 2017. Ramirez has led Cleveland in home runs in every season since 2020.
Reals: Bobby Witt Jr. (31)
Leader in 2023: Witt (30)
Witt broke out in 2023 when he became the first Royals player to achieve a 30-30 season. The young star reduced his strikeouts in 2023, allowing him to take advantage of his tremendous natural power more often. Based on his career and skills, he might threaten to hit 40 home runs.
Tigres: Spencer Torkelson (30)
Leader in 2023: Torkelson (31)
After hitting just 12 home runs in the first half of last year, Torkelson exploded for 19 in the second half. The No. 1 pick in the 2020 draft has always had the potential for 30-homer hauls and this might become a regular occurrence for the 24-year-old.
Twins: Byron Buxton (29)
Leader in 2023: Max Kepler (24)
Injuries have frequently been a part of the picture for Buxton, who is an electrifying player when he is on the field, especially at the plate. Even if Buxton plays 100 games, he’s a safe bet to hit 25 home runs, possibly more if he stays healthy.
White Sox: Luis Robert Jr. (33)
Leader in 2023: Robert (38)
Cuban Robert was a bright spot in a disappointing 2023 for the White Sox, hitting 38 home runs while finishing 12th in the American League Most Valuable Player voting. After dealing with injuries from 2021 to 2022, the center fielder was healthy for 145 games last year and should surpass 30 homers once more if he stays healthy.
Angelinos: Mike Trout (36)
Leader in 2023: Shohei Ohtani (44)
With Ohtani now on the Dodgers, Trout is easily the biggest power threat on the Angels. Unfortunately, injuries have become more frequent for the superstar, but when he has remained relatively healthy, he has shown plenty of power, such as when he hit 40 HRs in 119 games in 2022.
Astros: Yordan Álvarez (39)
Leader in 2023: Álvarez (31)
Cuban Álvarez has become one of the best hitters in baseball since his debut in 2019, ranking third with an OPS+ of 165 (min. 1,000 plate appearances) in that period. His prodigious power has led him to hit at least 31 home runs in each of his last three seasons and his first 40-home run season is within reach.
Athletics: Brent Rooker (26)
Leader in 2023: Rooker (30)
Acquired off waivers before the 2023 season, Rooker rewarded the A’s with a 30-homer year and a trip to the All-Star Game. The 29-year-old appears ready to get close to 30 home runs once more with daily at-bats in the middle of Oakland’s lineup.
Mariners: Julio Rodríguez (33)
Leader in 2023: Rodríguez (32)
Dominican J-Rod is one of baseball’s true superstars and an impact player in all facets of the game, especially when it comes to power. Rodríguez hit 60 home runs in his first two seasons and should approach or surpass 30 homers once more in 2024.
Rangers: Adolis García (32)
Leader in 2023: García (39)
Cuban García stole the show in the 2023 postseason, winning the American League Championship Series Most Valuable Player award and helping the Rangers win their first World Series. “El Bombi” hit a total of 47 home runs in 163 games between the regular season and the postseason. García hit 97 homers between 2021 and 2023 and is a safe bet to lead the Rangers in long balls once more.
Bravos: Matt Olson (41)
Leader in 2023: Olson (54)
Olson broke Atlanta’s single-season record with 54 home runs in what was a team production that left its mark on history. Since 2021, Olson’s 127 homers are just shy of Judge’s 138 and the left-handed slugger would be close to 40 homers once more in 2024.
Marlins: Jake Burger (27)
Leader in 2023: Soler (36)
Burger broke out last season with 34 home runs with the White Sox and Marlins. The right-handed hitter was in the 89th percentile or better in hit rate, hard hits, average exit velocity and anticipated slugging.
Mets: Pete Alonso (41)
Leader in 2023: Alonso (46)
No other slugger has hit more home runs (192) than Alonso since the first baseman debuted in 2019. The two-time Home Run Festival champion has surpassed 40 homers in consecutive seasons and has never finished with fewer than 37 outside of the shortened season. of 2020.
Nationals: Lane Thomas (24)
Leader in 2023: Thomas (28)
Thomas emerged last year, when he posted a 20-20 season as the standout of the Capitals’ offense. Exhausting at-bats as a starter for the first time in 2022, Thomas hit a total of 45 home runs in the last two years and is set to surpass 20 home runs once more.
Filis: Kyle Schwarber (42)
Leader in 2023: Schwarber (47)
Only Judge is projected to hit more home runs than Schwarber, and for good reason. The powerful leadoff hitter has hit home runs a total of 93 times in two seasons with Philadelphia. Schwarber’s great discipline along with elite thunder make him one of the biggest power threats in all of baseball.
Brewers: Rhys Hoskins (31)
Leader in 2023: Willy Adames (24)
After missing all of 2023 with a torn tendon in his knee, Hoskins brings his thunder to the Brewers following six years with the Phillies. Hoskins has hit 148 home runs and has four seasons in which he has hit at least 27 home runs.
Cardinals: Nolan Arenado / Paul Goldschmidt (28)
Leader in 2023: Nolan Gorman (27)
A year following Goldschmidt was recognized with the National MVP and Arenado finished third in the same votes, both turned back in 2023. If San Luis wants to right the ship following finishing with 71 victories and last in the division , they will need both gunships to perform similar to what they have shown during their careers.
Cachorros: Cody Bellinger / Christopher Morel (24)
Leader in 2023: Bellinger / Morel (26)
Bellinger and Morel shared the lead in homers in 2023 and are set to do the same in 2024. Bellinger made radical changes in 2023 to make more consistent contact, while the Dominican Morel has great innate power that might propel him to 30 home runs.
Pirates: Bryan Reynolds / Oneil Cruz (25)
Leader in 2023: Jack Suwinski (26)
Reynolds has been one of the most consistent starters in Pittsburgh since he debuted in 2019 and has put together three consecutive 20-homer seasons. Cruz missed most of 2023 due to a fractured fibula, but the Dominican is now completely healthy and has the innate thunder to hit 30 to 40 homers.
Reds: Matt McLain / Christian Encarnación-Strand (24)
Leader in 2023: Spencer Steer (23)
Cincinnati has a variety of young sluggers with the capabilities to lead the club in this category this year. McLain had an excellent rookie season in 2023, finishing fifth in NL Rookie of the Year voting following posting a 129 OPS+ and hitting 16 home runs. For his part, Encarnación-Strand hit 13 homers in 63 games.
D-backs: Christian Walker (29)
Leader in 2023: Walker (33)
Walker has developed into one of the best first basemen in the game, hitting a total of 69 home runs since 2022 at one of the most important positions. Heading into his age-33 season, there’s no reason to doubt that Walker can approach 30 homers once more and fill his role as a reliable bat in the middle of Arizona’s lineup.
Dodgers: Shohei Ohtani (40)
Leader in 2023: Mookie Betts (39)
Ohtani will be strictly a hitter in his first season with Los Angeles, which would present the possibility of greater offensive performance. The superstar is now one of the top hitters in all of baseball and hit 44 homers in 2023 before his season ended following 135 games due to injury.
Giants: Jorge Soler (32)
Leader in 2023: Wilmer Flores (23)
Somehow, Barry Bonds remains the last San Francisco hitter to homer at least 30 times in a season (45 in 2004). That might change in 2024 with Soler in his ranks. The Cuban hitter hit 36 home runs with the Marlins last year and set a personal best of 48 in 2019 with the Royals.
Padres: Fernando Tatis Jr. (37)
Leader in 2023: Juan Soto (35)
Looking ahead to his 25-year-old campaign, the Dominican is looking to return to the form he showed from 2019 to 2021. After missing all of 2022, Tatis had a good performance last season (OPS+ of 113) but not at the level of his career ( OPS+ of 143). He is shaping up to have a big year now in a lineup without his compatriot Juan Soto.
Rockies: Nolan Jones (23)
Leader in 2023: Ryan McMahon (23)
Jones emerged as a star for Colorado in 2023, posting a 138 OPS+ and a 20-20 season while playing quality defense. Jones has real thunder, ranking in the 94th percentile in hit rate in 2023, which looks good for a slugger who plays half of his games at Coors Field.
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