2023-11-19 21:13:32
Iran…the Gaza war casts a shadow over preparations for the legislative elections
The war between Israel and Hamas occupies a large area of attention in politics and local media, leaving limited campaign space for the parliamentary elections scheduled for March 2024, through which conservatives will seek to tighten their grip on power.
Officials announced last week that out of 24,982 applicants, regarding 28 percent of them were excluded in the initial screening stage supervised by the Elections Commission, affiliated with the Ministry of Interior.
It is not possible to predict the number of candidates who will compete on March 1, 2024, to renew the 209 seats in Parliament and the 88 seats in the Leadership Council of Experts, before the lists become final, only a month before the election date.
Fears
With the ongoing preparations, Iranians are preoccupied with the increasing economic difficulties, and the repercussions of the massive protest movement that shook the country following the death of the young woman Mahsa Amini in September 2022, following her arrest by the morality police in Tehran, on the grounds of wearing a bad hijab.
Political analyst Ahmed Zeidabadi expects that voters will continue to stay away from the ballot boxes, “unless the (Islamic Republic’s political) system is able to provide them with motives for hope and change,” according to what Agence France-Presse reported.
Among other growing concerns among Iranians is the devastating impact of the war in the Gaza Strip, and the possibility of Tehran getting involved in the war between Israel and Hamas, if its scope expands beyond the Gaza Strip.
Zaidabadi considered that the development of the war between Israel and Hamas may affect the results of the parliamentary elections, as any defeat of the Iranian-backed Islamic Resistance Movement “Hamas” “will weaken the position of supporters of the government if it occurs.”
“Enthusiastic” elections
Next year’s elections will be the first since nationwide protests rocked Iran, following Amini’s death in September 2022.
Conservatives dominate the current Iranian parliament, as the last session held in 2020 witnessed the exclusion of a large number of reformist and moderate candidates.
The widespread and controversial exclusion of these candidates was one of the reasons attributed to the decline in participation in the elections, as only 42.57 percent of voters went to polling stations throughout the country.
One Iranian out of four participated in the capital, Tehran, the largest electoral district, with the participation rate reaching 26 percent, the lowest rate recorded since the 1979 revolution.
On Thursday, Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei called for all necessary efforts to ensure the holding of “spirited elections” next March. This came during his meeting with members of the Guardian Council, which has the authority to decide on the eligibility of candidates for the elections.
For his part, Iranian President Ibrahim Raisi confirmed that his government does not have “any candidate” for the parliamentary elections, and that it is trying “only to encourage increased participation,” with the participation of “all political components.”
For their part, the reformists fear a repeat of the 2020 scenario, when many of their candidates were excluded from running in the battle, following a number of them were eliminated in the initial examination.
The reformist newspaper “Hum Mihin” wrote that the figures of this political movement realize that “even if the reformist figures are known, the nominations of only a few of them will be approved” by the Guardian Council, which is composed of 12 members, six of whom choose the Iranian leader, and the six The others are named by the Chief Justice, who in turn is appointed by the Supreme Leader.
Figures considered close to the reformist movement decided not to enter the competition, such as former Speaker of Parliament Ali Larijani, who was likely to be the most prominent competitor to Ibrahim Raisi in the 2021 presidential elections, before his candidacy was invalidated.
In May, Larijani accused a “movement” of leading a campaign to “cleanse” the political space, by eliminating all opponents.
Reports from Iran indicate that the “executive committees” for the upcoming elections, affiliated with the Ministry of Interior, have so far “imposed” nomination requests for at least 25 members of the current parliament, including four female representatives.
Some Iranian newspapers reported that the majority of those excluded were deputies critical of the government.
Outgoing reformist MP Masoud Pezeshkian, known for his criticism of the authorities, described the decision to invalidate his candidacy as “ridiculous” by “those who are trying to eliminate the people by neglecting them.”
Divisions
Interior Minister Ahmed Wahidi rejected the criticism, which he described as “immoral,” stressing that the government was “not involved at all” in the exclusion of candidates.
In the absence of an influential moderate camp, legislative discussions are currently marred by “divisions between conservatives, especially between pragmatists and radicals who enjoy great influence within the government,” as Ahmed Zeidabadi confirms.
Disagreements also arose regarding the foundations of the law that increases penalties for women who do not adhere to the mandatory hijab, the number of whom increased significantly following the 2022 protests. Parliament officially adopted this text in September, but it did not enter into force. Because it needs the approval of the Guardian Council.
On March 1, 2024, Iranians will also cast their votes to elect 88 members of the Leadership Council of Experts, which is responsible for appointing the Iranian leader, supervising his work and possibly dismissing him.
More than 300 candidates have registered to compete for the seats. Among the candidates for a new term in this council are its vice president, President Ibrahim Raisi, and his moderate predecessor, Hassan Rouhani, who said following his candidacy that he “will walk a difficult and steep path.”
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