2023-08-24 04:35:00
All the parties will tell you that it is too early to talk regarding the electoral lists of 2024. In their corridors, however, it is only regarding that. The return to politics which will begin next week will mark the start of a long sequence which, without interruption, will bring us to the June 2024 elections. In Brussels, the stakes will be high and the deal uncertain. Even more than in Wallonia, the first place of the PS, in majority with Écolo, Défi, Groen, the Open VLD and Vooruit, might be called into question. Full decumulation, which will prohibit local elected officials from sitting in parliaments, will also force candidates to make difficult choices, while municipal elections are scheduled four months later. The Brussels-Capital Region also has a specificity. It forms a single constituency so that each voter can vote there directly for each candidate and, indirectly, elect a minister-president. But which one?
A whole party is hanging on the decision of Bernard Clerfayt
Fabian Maingain © Bernard Demoulin
Challenge has been suspended for many months at the decision of Bernard Clerfayt. The Minister of Local Authorities maintains the suspense on a possible return as mayor of Schaerbeek before or following the regional elections. If the sexagenarian wishes to continue in the Region, the place at the top of the list seems to him promised. Bernard Clerfayt has in the past given signals suggesting a return to the city of donkeys. He is now blurring the tracks.
A step aside from Bernard Clerfayt will force Défi to complete its renewal of executives, following the withdrawal of Olivier Maingain and Didier Gosuin. Joëlle Maison, who no longer hides her ambitions, is considered by its president François De Smet as the most gifted parliamentarian on the merits of the files. Fabian Maingain, new president of the Brussels region and alderman in Brussels, is the other favourite. The son of the emblematic former president of the party positions himself unequivocally as the new regional leader.
Challenge activists want François De Smet in the Region
We should also mention Emmanuel De Bock, the experienced leader in the Brussels Parliament. Some activists even plead for François De Smet to draw the regional list himself, leaving the federal to Sophie Rohonyi. However, the president’s preference is for the federal government. But let’s not rule out a surprise.
Yvan Verougstraete in Europe and a smoking gun at the federal level?
Christophe de Beukelaer © JC Guillaume
Among the Committed, it is almost certain that Christophe De Beukelaer will lead the regional list. In a classic logic, Yvan Verougstraete, new defector from the party, would have taken the federal list. But the Committed, with the overhaul of the party, want to surprise by poaching a personality from civil society, ideally a woman, to lead the federal list.
If the party does not succeed, Yvan Verougstraete will resolve to take the federal list. But the founder of Medi-Market, more passionate regarding macro-economic issues than political politics, would not look unfavorably on the prospect of occupying the top of the European list himself. And too bad if the political risk is considerable (Editor’s note: Benoît Lutgen had won a few votes in extremis in 2019) and if the party burns an electoral cartridge. “You need someone who is not afraid of losing their job to take up this challenge”, tells us a Committed. Yvan Verougstraete is ideal: the person concerned hardly needs politics to live.
This would also allow the party to vary the profiles since its three current heavyweights, by adding Georges Dallemand, happen to be men, from Woluwe-Saint-Pierre… Gladys Kazadi, Brussels deputy and alderman in Berchem-Sainte-Agathe, should also figure prominently, probably second on the regional or even federal list. The case of Georges Dallemand, who risks losing his seat at the federal level, will also have to be dealt with.
David Leisterh will lead the MR list, less than a gamble from Bouchez
David Leisterh © Bauweraerts Didier
The MR of Georges-Louis Bouchez looks like a football team following the Bosman judgment. Departures, like arrivals, are more numerous there than elsewhere and the core team changes regularly. This is even more true in Brussels where it is certain that the leading duo of the last regional, Françoise Schepmans and Vincent De Wolf, will not be renewed.
But there is no need to go back that far. Compared to August 2022, the cards have been reshuffled. The departure of Sophie Wilmès from the government, for private reasons, had cascading consequences. His replacement by the Schaerbeekoise Hadja Lahbib offered a new electoral asset to the MR, while precipitating a sizeable start. Alexia Bertrand, the ex-new figurehead who had declared herself a candidate for the Brussels minister presidency in 2024, has moved to the Open VLD.
This departure, which agitated the party, will have major consequences on future electoral lists. Even if a gamble by Georges-Louis Bouchez, responsible for composing the Brussels lists with Sophie Wilmès, is never to be excluded, it is David Leisterh who should take the regional list of MR. This close friend of the president of the MR worked to compensate for his lack of notoriety, compared to his predecessor Didier Reynders, with a strong presence on the regional ground.
Valérie Glatigny, former Minister of Higher Education, currently recovering, should take second place. What follows is less obvious. If Vincent De Wolf, mayor of Etterbeek, will occupy a prominent place, the party seeks to make a move, by integrating personalities from civil society, and from diversity, in a good place.
The MR is looking for another Hadja Lahbib
In other words, the MR is looking for another Hadja Lahbib.
At the Federal level, it is almost certain, the Brussels federal list will be led by Sophie Wilmès, whose popularity gives cold sweats to certain competing parties. Michel De Maegd would occupy the second position.
The sequel is trickier. The MR and the Open VLD are discussing a common Brussels list at the Federal level. Among the French-speaking liberals, several voices that matter believe that the party has more to lose than to gain with this agreement… For the time being, the MR wishes to see Hadja Lahbib appear in third position, ahead of Alexia Bertrand, while the Flemish liberals dream of the opposite scenario. Remember that in 2019, the Brussels MR had only sent three elected officials to the Chamber… It is a knot that will have to be undone. While keeping in mind the ambitions that Charles Michel’s decision to seek, or not, a place on the European lists might arouse.
Khattabi will choose the federal, Maron has free rein in the Region
Alain Maron ©JC Guillaume
Zakia Khattabi has within the Brussels Ecolo federation such an aura that there is no question of anyone grilling his politeness.
A year ago, Alain Maron like Zakia Khattabi did not rule out being top of the list in the Region, the first declaring himself however ready to withdraw if the second aspired to the post. The situation settled down.
According to our information, Zakia Khattabi does not intend to be a candidate for the Region. “As federal climate minister, she intends to defend her record on the federal lists, which she should take”, slips us an environmental source. Among the Greens, let us remember, the content of the electoral lists is decided in the general assembly, on the basis of candidacies. And internally, a form of consensus seems to be emerging around the legitimacy of Alain Maron, current Brussels Minister for the Environment, to lead the regional list, with Barbara Trachte, Brussels Secretary of State, in second position. Rajae Maouane, co-president of Écolo, should go push the regional list, in last position.
At the PTB, it will be Françoise De Smedt
At the PTB, the question of the head of the regional list has already been decided. Françoise De Smedt will take her.
Caroline Désir and Ahmed Laaouej are favorites, but Rudi Vervoort is still there
Caroline Desir © Jacques Duchateau
At the Brussels PS, where the choice of lists depends on the Brussels Federation and not on Boulevard de l’Empereur, the situation is still unclear. While the Socialists see their leadership in Brussels threatened by the MR, the PTB and Ecolo, Rudi Vervoort, who is completing his third term as Minister-President, keeps repeating that he would see himself extending his mission. It would be wrong not to take it seriously. There is no one more skilful than the boss of the Brussels executive, underestimated throughout his career, to use the strength of his competitors once morest them like a judoka.
Rudi resists
In any case, keeping his position of strength allows him to more easily arrange an emergency exit, if he is not taken back to the Region. Rudi Vervoort (64) does not foresee retirement in the short term. His choice to keep the post of mayor of Evere is not trivial. The phlegmatic Everois would however only be a default choice for Ahmed Laaouej, president of the Brussels PS, on which the decision will depend.
“The ideal for us would be to put a woman as head of the list who would become the first at the head of the Region. A face of the future who would embody the Brussels PS for the next 20 years, like Philippe Moureaux in his time “, assures an elected official. The name of Caroline Désir comes up with the most insistence. The Minister of Education, although secular, enjoys a good image in working-class neighborhoods and is seen by some as an ideological synthesis between Charles Picqué and Philippe Moureaux.
In this device, she would take the list in front of Ridouane Chahid. Fadila Laanan will also figure prominently on the list, as will Rachid Madrane. There might also be other candidates to lead the list, such as Karine Lalieux, Minister of Pensions, and Nawal Ben Hamou, very active as Brussels Secretary of State for Housing. The candidacy of Philippe Close, once seen as obvious, is no longer so, even if the mayor of Brussels is not out of the game.
The next Brussels Minister-President might also be Ahmed Laaouej himself. The president of the Brussels Federation has, internally, the legitimacy to take the helm of the Region, in the event of electoral success. This does not necessarily imply appearing on the regional list. By opting for the federal government, Ahmed Laaouej would spare himself more options, without it being excluded, however, in certain scenarios, that he would take the reins of the Region. “Ahmed dreams of being a federal finance minister rather than a Brussels minister-president,” deciphers a socialist source.
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