2024-02-12 13:02:00
This year, unlike 2023, there will be more Dollars. Several factors come together so that in 2024 Argentina will have a surplus in balance of tradewhich will cause a net income of dollars to the country.
Firstly, the projections indicate a notable increase in exports driven by most favorable weather conditions which overcomes the drought that affected last season. The extreme heat that we suffered in recent days was mitigated by the rains and although there may be some damage, 90% of the planted soils are in good condition.
On the other hand, the Néstor Kirchner gas pipeline will play a crucial role in reducing the need to purchase energy during the winterthus reducing one of the main sources of dollar outflows.
Finally, it is estimated that the economy in 2024 will suffer a 3% drop in Gross Domestic Product (GDP), which implies fewer imports and contributes to the surplus in the trade balance.
According to the Market Expectations Survey (REM), prepared by the Central Bank of the Argentine Republic (BCRA) with the forecasts of consulting firms, research centers and financial entities, Exports of US$ 82,875 million are projected for the current year. and imports of US$66,912 million, leaving a trade surplus of US$15,963 million.
This year there will be no shortage of dollars and the BCRA may rebuild reservesthe question is what we will do with the pesos that are issued for said purchases.
The BCRA Board of Directors maintains the minimum guaranteed interest rate on fixed-term deposits unchanged
Fixed-term interest rates lose with inflation
The BCRA Board of Directors maintains the minimum guaranteed interest rate on fixed-term deposits unchanged, which implies a return of 9% monthly while inflation is estimated at around 20% per month.
Since last year, private fixed terms have been falling in real terms, first product of portfolio dollarization in the face of a context of uncertainty and now because of the strong negative real rate. In January, at constant prices they fell 17.8%, placing them 57.6% below the same month of the previous year.
Much of this fall came from legal entities, with the highest concentration being Money Market funds.
While placements in UVA grew by 53% in real terms, reaching $818,637 million at the end of January, which is equivalent to 5.5% of total time deposits. Let us remember that Its minimum placement period was raised to 180 days and the maximum amount determined at $5 million, but it remains the only fixed income instrument in pesos with a positive real rate.
Something similar happens with the bonds in local currency that are all quoted, whether those adjusted by CER or those that do so by the official dollar, with negative yields.
In such a way, the wave of pesos that is coming does not have positive fixed income instruments where it can be placedexcept for UVA fixed terms but tying up the money in the medium term.
The crawling peg problem
Therefore, by the time those pesos begin to arrive, it will be necessary for inflation and monetary policy rates to converge at similar levels, that is, for March/April inflation will be at a maximum of 1 digit.
In the middle The crawling peg is strongly lagging the official dollar, following an inflation of 25.5% in December and possible 20% for January and 15% for February, we will arrive in March with an exchange rate of $490 at December values, very far from that $800. A new jump in the official dollar would imply a new flash of inflation.
Therefore, beyond the calm that is currently experienced with financial dollars, the main trend continues to be bullish and if that is the case it will always It is better to position yourself in dollarized assets while prices are depressed. For traditional or conservative savers it may be directly in hard currency, today the cheapest price is in BLUE, and for those who also seek to obtain a return for those dollars they have everything from hard dollar bonds, negotiable obligations and cedars.
1707748704
#Fixed #terms #pesos #collapse #highlight #dollars
