The highly anticipated fourth edition of the College Football Playoff rankings for 2024 is just around the corner, especially after an unexpected weekend where seven ranked teams suffered losses. As the CFP committee gears up to reveal the latest standings, I’ve formulated my predictions on where the top 25 teams might settle in.
Mark your calendars for the fourth of six CFP top 25 unveilings set to take place on Tuesday, November 26 (check out the complete schedule for the announcements). In preparation for the big reveal, I present my projections for the ranking of the top 25 teams. It’s important to note that these predictions reflect my analysis and insights. My ranking methodology takes into account head-to-head matchups, the strength of schedules, and performance against ranked opponents, along with various other factors. For those looking for the official criteria utilized by the CFP committee, you can read the CFP committee’s protocols here.
2024 College Football Playoff rankings predictions: Fourth Top 25 projections
These predictions are as of Sunday, November 23.
- Oregon (11-0) LW: 1 — Oregon retains the top spot after a well-timed bye week, remaining unbeaten.
- Ohio State (10-1) LW: 2 — Ohio State fortified its position at No. 2 with another significant victory over a top-five opponent.
- Texas (10-1) LW: 3 — Following a decisive win against Kentucky, Texas solidifies its status as the top-ranked SEC team.
- Penn State (10-1) LW: 4 — Although their performance against Minnesota was shaky, Penn State managed to pull off a victory and maintains its spot at No. 4.
- Notre Dame (10-1) LW: 6 — Following a commanding win against Army, the Fighting Irish could make a case to be in the top four, but I predict the committee will keep them ranked fifth due to comparisons with other teams’ losses.
- Miami (Fla.) (10-1) LW: 8 — With a victory over Wake Forest, Miami rises in the rankings, overtaking teams that faltered last weekend.
- Georgia (9-2) LW: 10 — After securing a win against UMass, Georgia will advance in the rankings this week.
- Tennessee (9-2) LW: 11 — Tennessee re-enters the playoff conversation after achieving a shutout victory against UTEP.
- Indiana (10-1) LW: 5 — Following its first loss, Indiana drops to No. 9, falling behind teams with multiple losses but better overall wins, while still remaining in the top 10 due to its single-loss record.
- Boise State (10-1) LW: 12 — Despite a four-point victory over Wyoming, Boise State remains positioned behind Indiana, given that their impressive win against UNLV doesn’t outweigh Indiana’s overall record.
- SMU (10-1) LW: 13 — With the erasure of two SEC teams from playoff contention, SMU finally breaks into the projected playoff bracket.
- Alabama (8-3) LW: 7 — As the highest-ranked three-loss team, Alabama maintains relevance in playoff talks due to its earlier victory over South Carolina, even though they’re not in the playoffs this week.
- Ole Miss (8-3) LW: 9 — Thanks to a head-to-head victory over South Carolina, Ole Miss retains stability in the rankings for the time being.
- Clemson (9-2) LW: 17 — Benefiting from the losses of other teams, Clemson moves up but remains lower than Alabama and Ole Miss due to a significant loss to Georgia.
- South Carolina (8-3) LW: 18 — A win against Wofford keeps South Carolina in striking distance of the playoff bubble.
- Arizona State (9-2) LW: 21 — Despite defeating the No. 14 team, Arizona State’s previous ranking leaves them just behind South Carolina, as the committee is expected to keep them lower despite the victory.
- Tulane (9-2) LW: 20 — After a bye week, Tulane is likely to rise into the teens in this week’s rankings.
- Iowa State (9-2) LW: 22 — Iowa State’s survival against Utah keeps their hopes for the Big 12 alive.
- Texas A&M (8-3) LW: 15 — Although Texas A&M drops in the rankings, they maintain a position above a Missouri team they previously overcame.
- Missouri (8-3) LW: 23 — Following a win against Mississippi State, Missouri is anticipated to climb into the top 20.
- BYU (9-2) LW: 14 — Back-to-back losses will cause BYU to plummet to No. 20, signaling the committee’s diminishing regard for them following their previous ranking drop.
- UNLV (9-2) LW: 24 — UNLV moves up after securing a victory over San Jose State.
- Illinois (8-3) LW: 25 — Illinois holds onto its ranking following an improbable victory over Rutgers.
- Colorado (8-3) LW: 16 — Colorado is set to lose ground this week, but given their positioning in Big 12 championship contention, they are likely to remain ranked.
- Syracuse (8-3) LW: NR — Syracuse enters the rankings as a three-loss team from the ACC, highlighted by a significant win against UNLV.
CFP🏆: College Football Playoff rankings release schedule
What the bracket could look like
First Teams Out: No. 12 Alabama, No. 13 Ole Miss, No. 14 Clemson, No. 15 South Carolina
Notable College Football Playoff rankings questions
Where does Indiana land?
There has been much speculation regarding Indiana’s ranking following its defeat to Ohio State, particularly after losses from other top teams like Alabama and Ole Miss. Indiana is likely to remain within the projected playoff field; however, the question lingers as to whether a single-loss Indiana will be positioned behind two-loss SEC teams.
LAST WEEK’S RECAP: Florida upsets No. 9 Ole Miss, No. 2 Ohio State ends No. 5 Indiana’s undefeated streak and more
Do three-loss teams have a real shot at the playoffs?
With both Alabama and Ole Miss now having three losses each, the extent of their drop in the rankings remains uncertain. Each school holds a notable victory over Georgia, which may still hold some influence in the committee’s decision-making process.
Could the Big 12 miss the playoffs?
Currently, Arizona State appears to be the highest-ranked team from the Big 12. However, the possibility of the conference lacking a team in the top 15 this week remains, especially since no ranked Big 12 teams are competing against one another in Week 14. A few unexpected outcomes could significantly impact their chances of showcasing a top-ranked conference champion.
Stan Becton joined NCAA.com in 2021, where he has carved a niche covering FCS, track and field, cross country, and HBCU sports. He has extensively reported on numerous NCAA championship events such as the FCS Championship and the DI Track & Field Championships. In addition, he was on-site for the 2022 College Football Playoff’s Peach Bowl and other significant HBCU events like the Celebration Bowl and Legacy Classic. A five-year letterman in football, Stan graduated from Carnegie Mellon University with a degree in Professional Writing. You can follow him on Twitter @stan_becton.
The views expressed on this page do not necessarily reflect the views of the NCAA or its member institutions.
– Which factors do you consider most important when predicting which unranked teams might make a late push for playoff contention?
**Interview with College Football Analyst, Jamie Reynolds**
**Interviewer:** Welcome, Jamie! With the upcoming College Football Playoff rankings release on November 26, it seems we have a lot to talk about. The weekend’s results were surprising, to say the least. What are your initial thoughts on how the seven ranked teams losing will impact the rankings?
**Jamie Reynolds:** Thanks for having me! It was a wild weekend, and those upsets will definitely shake things up. The CFP committee is going to have some tough decisions to make, especially with teams like Indiana and Alabama who have strong cases but also vulnerabilities.
**Interviewer:** Speaking of Indiana, their loss to Ohio State has created a bit of a debate on where they’ll land. What’s your take on their position?
**Jamie Reynolds:** I think Indiana will hover around the top 10 despite that loss. Their overall record is solid, and the committee tends to reward teams that have a good number of wins against strong opposition. However, they still need to justify their placing ahead of other one-loss teams.
**Interviewer:** Let’s talk about the teams that made significant moves. Notably, Syracuse is back in the rankings. What was their key to success?
**Jamie Reynolds:** Absolutely! Syracuse has made a strong statement with their win over UNLV. They have a favorable record within the ACC, and that consistency is essential, especially when it comes to getting into the rankings. Their ability to capitalize on other teams’ mistakes this past weekend certainly helped their case.
**Interviewer:** Michigan State and Texas A&M both took a hit in the rankings this week. Do you think they can bounce back in the final stretch of the season?
**Jamie Reynolds:** They certainly can, but they’ll need to execute perfectly. Michigan State, in particular, has a tougher schedule ahead, and they can’t afford any more missteps. Texas A&M has some wiggle room with their schedule, but they’ll have to show a drastic improvement.
**Interviewer:** Before we wrap up, which teams outside the current top 10 do you see making a late push into playoff contention?
**Jamie Reynolds:** Look for teams like Ole Miss and Clemson. Despite their losses, they’ve been in the conversation all season and both have the potential to surprise in the coming weeks. The rankings can shift quickly, particularly as conference championships approach.
**Interviewer:** Great insights, Jamie! Thank you for sharing your thoughts. We’ll definitely revisit these predictions after the next rankings are released.
**Jamie Reynolds:** My pleasure! It’s an exciting time for college football, and I can’t wait to see how it all unfolds.