July 23, 2023

2023-07-23 20:35:33

Source: newspaper

Author: Mounir Al-Rabee

Lebanon is facing a decisive and critical week, in anticipation of what will be decided regarding the departure of the Central Bank Governor, Riad Salameh, from his post on the 31st of this month. Governmental and political departments are still looking at how to deal with this entitlement, especially in light of the clear conflict of opinions on more than one level, even within the same team. The division applies to the political forces and the components of the government. Hezbollah insists that the first deputy ruler, Wasim Mansouri, assume the powers of the ruler, which is something that President Nabih Berri and Mansouri himself fear, for fear that the financial crisis will explode in their faces, or that they will be held responsible for adopting monetary policies similar to what Salameh himself adopted.

Within the government, a party wants Salama to leave and appoint a judicial guard, while another party wants the man to remain pending the election of a president of the republic, under the pretext of running the public utility, and a third party represented by the deputy prime minister, His Excellency Al-Shami, seems satisfied with the discussions that took place between him and the ruler’s deputies, and therefore is eager to take them over.

The governor’s deputies were supposed to submit their resignations tomorrow at a press conference, but many contacts took place with them, in addition to pressure exerted on them to continue in their positions. Prime Minister Najib Mikati contacted them, requesting that their press conference be postponed, in order to meet with them and discuss with them what can be done. However, all the consultations that took place last week in the House of Representatives with the ruler’s deputies did not reach any formula of agreement, in light of their insistence on issuing legislation and laws that protect their work in the framework of exchange from the compulsory reserve in the Banque du Liban in the interest of calming the exchange rate of the lira once morest the dollar and not deteriorating strongly, especially in light of the search for a mechanism to cancel an exchange platform and replace it with another advanced and controlled platform, and therefore it is subject to monitoring and legitimacy, so the deputies of the ruler do not bear any responsibility.

There are 3 options that are still on the table and are being discussed, which is the possibility for the first deputy governor to assume the powers of the governor and to be assisted by the other deputies within the framework of work within the Central Council. Or for the governor’s deputies to submit their resignations and be assigned to conduct business, provided that their work is limited, and this does not count the results and repercussions on the currency market and the monetary situation. As for the third possibility, it is a return to the formula for extending Salama’s stay in his position, which is opposed by multiple forces at home and abroad, and what may necessitate popular and political protest movements. In any case, Lebanon has reached a dangerous stage on the financial level, whatever the option that will be taken, it will be a transitional stage even if Salameh remains in his position as extender or manager of business, because the scope of his work will narrow and his powers will weaken, as well as in the event that the ruler’s deputies take over responsibility for conducting business following their resignations, which means their inability to control the market, and here follow-up sources reveal that during the past discussions the deputies of the ruler expressed their fear of how to deal with the market, especially in light of the lack of availability » Full data »regarding their money changers, and their inability to communicate and pump dollars to prevent a significant and rapid deterioration in the exchange rate.

Lebanon will, then, face a new and sensitive test on the financial level, from now until following the end of the term of the bank’s governor, amid expectations that it will tend to be negative and to fears regarding the financial reality that will have political and even security repercussions.

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