2023-10-08 07:19:00
2023/10/08 16:19 Weather News
As of 15:00 on Sunday, October 8th, Typhoon No. 15 (Bolaven) is moving westward near the Truk Islands.
Please pay close attention to future typhoon information as it will pass through the waters near Ogasawara with very strong force. It will gradually change its course to the northeast in the second half of this week, so it is unlikely to approach Honshu.
▼Typhoon No.15 October 8th (Sunday) 15:00
Center location Near Truk Islands
Size class //
Strength class //
Move west 15 km/h
Central pressure 998 hPa
Maximum wind speed 20 m/s (near the center)
Maximum instantaneous wind speed 30 m/s
» Latest typhoon information
At the peak of development, near Ogasawara
Typhoon No. 15 is expected to rapidly intensify as it moves through areas suitable for its development, becoming a strong force the day after tomorrow, the 10th (Tuesday), and a very strong force by the 11th (Wednesday). The central pressure is expected to drop to 935 hPa on the 13th (Friday), five days before it reaches the waters near Ogasawara.
Although it is currently expected to pass some distance from the Ogasawara Islands, there are concerns about the impact of strong winds and high waves as it will reach its peak. If the typhoon changes course, the impact will be greater, so please check future typhoon information.
As the Pacific anticyclone is weakening in strength, it is expected to move northward to the waters near Ogasawara before gradually changing course to the east. It is expected that there will be little impact as it approaches Honshu.
» Radar Wind Mode (Wind Flow)
Reference Results of course simulations calculated by meteorological agencies around the world
Each thin line in this diagram represents the result of a simulation of the course calculated by meteorological agencies around the world. These members are obtained through the process of ensemble forecasting, and are shown here to give you an idea of the wide range of possible paths.Comparing these members, it can be seen that after moving northwest near the Mariana Islands, they tend to turn around near Ogasawara and move northeast, and the variation in course predictions is relatively small.
Although the error is small, we must not be complacent, as even the slightest deviation can greatly change the impact on the Ogasawara Islands.
Probability of entering the storm area of a typhoon
The following are the prefectural forecast areas where the probability of entering the typhoon’s storm region within the next 5 days is 3% or higher. (Japan Meteorological Agency)
Amami region 24%
Okinawa main island region
Northern/central southern main island 27%
Kerama/Aguni Islands 29%
Kumejima 27%
Dadongdo Island 9%
Miyakojima region 23%
Yaeyama region
Ishigaki Island region 18%
Yonagunijima region 11%
First typhoon in October
This is the first typhoon in about a week since Typhoon Koinu, which formed at the end of September and was moving westward in the South China Sea. This is the first typhoon to occur in October.
The average number of typhoons in October is 3.4, which tends to be less than in the summer, but September to October is a period when many typhoons approach and land in the Honshu area, so we cannot let our guard down.
It is possible that typhoons that will affect the Japanese archipelago will occur in the future, so please do not relax your measures against typhoons and heavy rain.
» Radar satellite cloud image mode
typhoon name
There are 140 typhoon names proposed by member countries of the international organization “Typhoon Commission,” and they are assigned in the order in which they occur.
The name of Typhoon No. 15, Bolaven, was proposed by Laos and is taken from the name of a plateau in southern Laos.
» Radar typhoon mode
Reference materials etc.
1696758388
#Typhoon #expected #develop #strong #force #affect #Ogasawara #passes #Weather #News