2023-07-25 07:00:00
While you can assume that running backs will show the first signs of the league’s enormous wear and tear at the latest following their rookie contract expires, it’s not quite as easy with receivers. Age is less noticeable at this position, even though most receivers have their fantasy peak between 26 and 28. Only the absolutely elite pass receivers manage to remain fantasy relevant followingwards. But even with players like Tyreek Hill, Cooper Kupp and Davante Adams, the slump will come at some point. The question is: when exactly? And how do we factor this risk into our WR rankings for 2023 NFL Fantasy Football? Find out in the following paragraphs.
Before we dive into the rankings for 2023, a small note from me: Ranking players before every fantasy draft is a good way to avoid losing track under time pressure. But even better are tiers, i.e. groups of players who have roughly the same value. They help you see where the value currently lies in the draft and where you might be leaving it behind.
A small example to illustrate this: You are “on the clock” and still haven’t picked a quarterback for your team. However, there are just four to five quarterbacks on the board, all ranked in the same tier (let’s say, Tier 2). When it comes to running backs, on the other hand, there is only one option from a separate tier, behind which there is a massive drop-off in quality.
In this case, it makes more sense to take the running back, even if he may be the third or even fourth on your team, since you can assume that a Tier 2 quarterback will still be on the board in the next round is. It’s decisions like these that will help you avoid leaving any value on the draft board and put together the best possible team.
If you’ve internalized this strategy, you’re now ready for our receiver rankings for the 2023 NFL year – specifically designed for leagues in which pass receivers get a point per reception (PPR). Let’s go:
Tier 1: The best of the best (elite)
1. Justin Jefferson, Minnesota Vikings
2. Ja’Marr Chase, Cincinnati Bengals
3. Tyreek Hill, Miami Dolphins
4. Cooper Kupp, Los Angeles Rams
Justin Jefferson is the No. 1 receiver on the consensus board of experts in the USA and there are hardly any arguments that go past the 24-year-old. He scored the most fantasy points of any receiver last year and should even get positive touchdown regression in 2023 (8 TDs in 2022 with an expected value of 11.1). For me, Chase is right behind, and he has the advantage of playing with a top-three quarterback. Joe Burrow is always capable of throwing more than 50 touchdowns in a season. If Chase can maintain his efficiency with more target volume, he might become the biggest star of the upcoming fantasy season.
DK Metcalf has Justin Jefferson as the 1.01
Do you agree? ???? pic.twitter.com/W3523TeGGc
— PFF Fantasy Football (@PFF_Fantasy) July 18, 2023
Tier 2: Safe WR1s
5. Stefon Diggs, Buffalo Bills
6. CeeDee Lamb, Dallas Cowboys
7. A.J. Brown, Philadelphia Eagles
8. Amon-Ra St. Brown, Detroit Lions
9. Davante Adams, Las Vegas Raiders
10. Jaylen Waddle, Miami Dolphins
11. Garrett Wilson, New York Jets
I would have liked to move CeeDee Lamb up a tier with a full season with quarterback Dak Prescott, but offensive coordinator Kellen Moore’s departure to Los Angeles concerns me. The Cowboys have consistently been top two in offensive pace over the last three seasons, while Mike McCarthy’s Packers have been in the bottom third of the league in his last three years there. Add to that the competition in the form of Brandin Cooks, and putting Lamb in the same tier with Jefferson and Chase is not justifiable to me. The 24-year-old’s upside is still huge, but in my opinion he belongs more in the region of players like Stefon Diggs and Davante Adams.
Tier 3: WR1 potential exists
12. Tee Higgins, Cincinnati Bengals
13. Chris Olave, New Orleans Saints
14. DeVonta Smith, Philadelphia Eagles
15. Deebo Samuel, San Francisco 49ers
16. D.K. Metcalf, Seattle Seahawks
17. Amari Cooper, Dallas Cowboys
18. Calvin Ridley, Jacksonville Jaguars
19. DeAndre Hopkins, Tennessee Titans
Olave is one of the players I really wanted to move up a tier, but I’m a coward and prefer to leave him in this safer tier. It’s the 23-year-old’s skillset that I find so enticing, but his situation in New Orleans isn’t the best from an offensive perspective. Although Derek Carr is an upgrade, I don’t know how the Saints are passing more than last year (27th in pass rate). If the offense relies more on a pass-first approach, I think Olave has the potential to break into the top 12. Due to the uncertainty, I’ll leave it at 13 for now – which is already significantly higher than in many other rankings.
One of the biggest reasons I’m a fan of Chris Olave in real and fantasy football is watching him adjust on the fly. Running a seam route with a defender widening with him, he smoothly swims underneath and protects the ball with his body, bringing it in for a big play pic.twitter.com/KDC2iNr8mZ
— Daniel Harms???? (@InHarmsWay19) July 14, 2023
Tier 4: Solide WR2s
20. Christian Watson, Green Bay Packers
21. Keenan Allen, Los Angeles Chargers
22. Terry McLaurin, Washington Commanders
23. Jerry Jeudy, Denver Broncos
24. D.J. Moore, Chicago Bears
25. Drake London, Atlanta Falcons
26. Brandon Aiyuk, San Francisco 49ers
One player I have lower in my rankings than many other fantasy experts is DJ Moore. I don’t have a personal problem with the player, quite the opposite: He has already proven that he can perform with bad quarterbacks and is one of the best wideouts in the NFL purely in terms of talent. The problem is Moore’s landing spot in Chicago. Yes, the Bears should pass with the 26-year-old in the lineup more than the league-low 377 times from last year. But even a jump of, say, 100 pass attempts would still result in a bottom-five pass offense in terms of volume. With a generous target share of 25 percent, that would still only be 120 targets – in order to move into WR1 territory, both Moore and Bears quarterback Justin Fields will have to play much more efficiently than they have so far.
Tier 5: WR3s mit Upside
27. Mike Williams, Los Angeles Chargers
28. Tyler Lockett, Seattle Seahawks
29. Chris Godwin, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
30. Mike Evans, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
31. Christian Kirk, Jacksonville Jaguars
32. Michael Pittman Jr., Indianapolis Colts
33. Diontae Johnson, Pittsburgh Steelers
34. Jahan Dotson, Washington Commanders
35. Jordan Addison, Minnesota Vikings
36. George Pickens, Pittsburgh Steelers
Unfortunately, the landing spots for this year’s rookie receivers were anything but promising, with one exception in my opinion: Jordan Addison should very quickly establish himself as the No. 2 option in the Vikings’ passing game and has the potential to break into the top 24 , if he can build chemistry with Kirk Cousins. However, Zay Flowers, Quentin Johnston and Jaxon Smith-Njigba all didn’t make it into my top 36. As always, all rookies are worth a pick in the later rounds, but in 8- or 10-team leagues I wouldn’t hope for upside too early, which in many cases doesn’t even exist – at least this season.
Jordan Addison ????
Addison was drafted to replace Adam Thielen, in 2022:
????107 targets
????22 Redzone targets (T-5th among WRs)
????Vikings – 672 attempts (3rd)They also let Cook walk and have a bottom 5 defense
Consider following if you love dominating your fantasy league????
— Chris O’Brien (@17gamepace) July 19, 2023
And that’s it for the receiver rankings, next week we’ll continue with the quarterbacks. The tight ends will follow the week following. By the way: If you are interested in our running back rankings for the fantasy year 2023, just click here.
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