2023-12-06 06:54:00
The year 2023 will indeed be the ‘hottest’ in history and the temperature is rising on Wednesday among negotiators at COP28 in an attempt to end the first week with progress on the ever more contested issue of fossil fuels.
In Dubai, a new version of the text under discussion with a view to a future agreement, theoretically by December 12, is expected ‘probably’ on Wednesday during the day, according to an observer.
But nothing is ever certain at the COP, neither in form nor in substance.
The situation is ‘very dynamic’, summed up a negotiator on Tuesday evening, while representatives of nearly 200 countries debated until very late the Gordian knot of the draft final agreement: the fate of oil, gas and coal, the main causes of global warming.
Several options are on the table, including the objective of an ‘orderly and fair exit from fossil fuels’.
The appearance of this formulation foreshadows a possible consensus which would set a universal objective while allowing a different timetable for countries depending on their degree of development or dependence on hydrocarbons.
But this option is weighed once morest a more radical possibility: deciding nothing on fossil fuels, a reflection of the opposition at this stage from Saudi Arabia and China, according to several observers who attend the closed meetings.
‘On board the train’
The 2015 Paris agreement “was a great success for all of us”, Saudi negotiator Khaled Almehaid said on Tuesday. ‘Now the challenge is how to keep all the passengers on the train,’ he added, pleading with this diplomatic euphemism for the firm Saudi opposition to any anti-oil messaging at the COP.
As it stands, the text does not propose a short-term objective for the three fossil fuels while climate experts estimate that emissions must be reduced by 43% by 2030 compared to 2019 to hope to maintain the limit of 1.5°C.
The new version expected on Wednesday must be brought to a large plenary meeting taking stock of the first week of work. Before a day of rest on Thursday and the arrival this weekend of ministers, supposed to regain control at the political level for the home stretch.
Meanwhile, global warming continues unabated. The European Copernicus service has confirmed that the year 2023 will indeed be the ‘hottest’ in history following an ‘extraordinary’ November.
‘As soon as possible’
The month of November 2023 was also 1.75°C warmer than the average November for the period 1850-1900, which corresponds to the pre-industrial era.
The boreal autumn (in the Northern Hemisphere) is thus the hottest in history ‘by a wide margin’, since it is 0.88°C above average, according to Copernicus.
“This extraordinary November, including two days with temperatures 2 degrees higher than pre-industrial times, means 2023 is the hottest year on record,” said Samantha Burgess, deputy head of the Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S).
‘As long as greenhouse gas concentrations continue to increase, we should not expect results different from those observed this year. The temperature will continue to increase, as will the effects of heat waves and droughts,’ said Carlo Buontempo, director of C3S.
“Reaching net zero (in terms of emissions) as soon as possible is an effective way to manage climate-related risks,” he added, in an allusion to the negotiations at COP28.
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