2023-12-29 11:49:09
Published on Dec 29 2023 at 12:49 Updated Dec 29 2023 at 12:51
One last day of winnings for the road? The European markets are heading there this Friday, for the final session of 2023. The rise in shares is not very significant but is enough to illustrate the good performance of the markets over the whole year, while strong winds Opposites might have caused them to capsize, such as monetary tightening, the small banking crisis in March or even geopolitical tensions.
At mid-session, the Cac 40 gained 0.29% to 7,556.7 points in a ghostly business volume of 300 million euros. The first session of 2023, on Monday January 2, gave the start of a sumptuous year. That day, the Cac 40 gained 1.87%. Since then, the flagship index has shown an increase of close to 17% over 2023. Its third best score since 2014.
The European Stoxx 600 index gained 0.3%, bringing its annual increase to 13% for the moment and, more broadly still, the MSCI All Country World increased by around 20%. “ The idea that the major central banks have surely done enough to quell the inflationary surge of 2022-2023 is fueling the rally “, commented Brian Barish, Chief Investment Officer at Cambiar Investors LLC. “ It is not difficult to imagine new concerns for markets, such as the US elections, the US federal government’s considerable bond financing needs and/or any resurgence of inflation. But, for now, there is not much news and not many sellers ».
An alignment of the planets unlikely in 2024
On Wall Street, the flagship S&P 500 index is moving steadily towards new heights. Futures contracts are forecasting it up just three points, while it would need at least 35 points to reach an absolute peak. The S&P 500 shows an increase of 24.6% in 2023, the Dow Jones 13.8% and, boxing in another category, the Nasdaq Composite jumped 44.2%, so far its best annual performance since 2003. The frenzy around artificial intelligence, which boosted the world of technology, dominated by the “Magnificent 7” like Nvidia, explains this performance.
The cessation of the rise in rates by central banks which should, according to the market, turn into relaxation in the first or second quarter of 2024 has also fostered a festive atmosphere in recent months. But can the American Federal Reserve meet the high expectations of the market, which is banking on six rate cuts next year without an economic recession twisting its arm? “ For the markets to continue to rise, we need an alignment of the planets which is very improbable,” judge Vincent Mortier of Amundi, cited by the Financial Times. If the Fed eases policy early in the year, “she will make a big mistake” according to him. “Assume that inflation is no longer a problem (…) can lead to a repeat of past mistakes “. Also quite pessimistic, Ipek Ozkardeskaya, analyst at Swissquote, expects an investor hangover and a period of correction following an inexorable two-month rally.
Japan shines and China remains in the shadows
In Asia, the Nikkei recorded the largest annual increase in the region, climbing 28%, the first time for the Japanese index since 2013, the year Haruhiko Kuroda took office as governor of the Bank of Japan and began easing. massive monetary.
Conversely, the CSI of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock exchanges fell by 11.4% in 2023, the third consecutive year of decline, once morest a backdrop of slow post-Covid economic recovery. The index gained 0.5% this Friday.
On the business side, the French luxury giants appear in the Cac 40 rankings this Friday: Kering, Hermès and LVMH gaining by 0.5% to 0.8%.
If LVMH and Hermès reached a higher level during the year, none of them is among the big winners within the Cac 40. It is the car manufacturer Stellantis which recorded the strongest growth in 2023 .
Medtech Carmat climbs 8.5% following announcing a software improvement which will strengthen the safety profile of the Aeson artificial heart that it designs, produces and markets for heart transplantation.
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