A Archyde.com poll showed that The Egyptian economy It will witness fairly steady growth over the next three years, with inflation gradually declining from over 10% and the depreciation of the pound in the near term.
The poll of 19 economists, conducted from July 6-20, showed that gross domestic product is expected to grow by an average of 5.5% in the fiscal year that began this month, up slightly from the 5.2% forecast three months ago. .
The official Middle East News Agency reported earlier this month that the government had kept its growth target of 5.5%. The planning minister said earlier this month that the economy grew 6.2% in the 2021-2022 fiscal year, which ended in June.
Economic growth is expected to slow to 4.9% in the next fiscal year 2023-2024 and accelerate once more to 5.4% in 2024-2025.
After overcoming the worst consequences of the Corona virus pandemic, the Egyptian economy was subjected to a new shock due to the indirect consequences of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, when investors withdrew billions of dollars from the Egyptian treasury market.
Egypt is one of the largest importers of wheat in the world and suffers greatly from high oil and grain prices. Egypt used to import most of its wheat from Russia and Ukraine, which also contribute to the growth of the Egyptian economy, as a large number of tourists visit Egypt annually. Egypt is also one of a group of countries seeking new support from the International Monetary Fund.
Inflation rate
Allen Sandeep of Naeem Brokerage said global commodity prices, particularly wheat, fertilizer and oil, are declining, leading to slightly higher growth expectations.
“I have a feeling that all of this will indirectly provide some relief to the import-dependent emerging economies,” he added.
He added that inflation, which reached its highest level in three years, but fell slightly to 13.2 percent in June, will remain above 10 percent as long as the Russian-Ukrainian crisis and sanctions imposed on Moscow persist.
The respondents expected a decline in inflation over the next two years, to slow to an average of 10% in the current fiscal year and then 10.4% next year.
Participants predicted that inflation would fall to an average of 8% in the 2024-2025 fiscal year within the central bank’s target range of 5% to 9%.
pound price
As they expected to be traded Egyptian Pound At 19.00 to the dollar by the end of the current fiscal year in June 2023 before falling to 19.86 by June 2024 and 20.00 by June 2025, down more than 25% from its levels at the beginning of this year.
The Central Bank of Egypt had allowed the devaluation of the pound on March 21 to regarding 18.45 once morest the dollar from its previous level of 15.70. Yesterday, Wednesday, the pound was trading at regarding 18.94 pounds to the dollar.
The poll showed that the central bank is expected to keep the overnight lending rate at 12.25% by the end of the current fiscal year and reduce it to 11.75% and 10.50% by the end of the next two fiscal years 2023-2024 and 2024-2025, respectively.