[뉴욕 마켓 브리핑](October 4th) | KB’s Thoughts

[뉴욕 마켓 브리핑](October 4th)

*October 3 (local time)

-New York stock market: Dow 0.44%↓ S&P 500 0.17%↓ NASDAQ 0.04%↓

-US 10-year Treasury bond interest rate: 3.852%, up 6.80bp from 3pm on the previous trading day

-Dollar: Strong against the yen and euro. The dollar index rose 0.357% to 101.972.

-WTI: surged $3.61 (5.15%) to $73.71 per barrel.

*Summary of market conditions

△ The New York stock market all three major stock indexes closed with a decline. As international oil prices soared due to rumors of Israel striking Iranian oil facilities, uncertainty is heightened, and the stock market is in a flat range, so watch the trend with caution. Oil prices in New York soared more than 5% due to increased supply anxiety as the U.S. government announced that it was reviewing the situation amid speculation that Israel could directly attack Iran’s oil facilities.

The market, which had been shaking, recovered much of its losses toward the end of the day. This is interpreted to be because concerns about an economic recession have eased due to improved service industry conditions, and expectations for the non-agricultural employment index to be announced on the 4th have also increased.

By industry, consumer discretionary goods and materials fell by more than 1%. On the other hand, energy prices rose by more than 1% today, benefiting from the surge in oil prices. Real estate also fell by nearly 1%.

Nvidia’s stock price jumped more than 3% after it announced that demand was very strong for its next-generation artificial intelligence (AI) graphics processing unit (GPU), Blackwell. On the other hand, Tesla’s sales fell by more than 3% as the number of vehicles delivered fell short of expectations.

△ US Treasury bond prices continue to decline. As international oil prices soared due to rumors of an Israeli attack on Iranian oil facilities, concerns about inflation spread and pushed down government bond prices.

The value of the dollar rose for 4 consecutive trading days. While the pound plunged by more than 1% due to dovish remarks by Bank of England (BOE) Governor Andrew Bailey, the U.S. service industry indicator provided a ‘surprise’, pushing the dollar higher. Safety preference due to geopolitical concerns in the Middle East also contributed to the dollar’s strength.

*Daily Focus

-Israel strikes Iranian oil facilities… Biden “Discussing”[

Responding to speculation that Israel could attack Iranian oil facilities in retaliation for Iran’s missile attack, U.S. President Joe Biden said, “We’re discussing it.”

Before departing to visit hurricane-damaged areas in Florida and Georgia on the 3rd (local time), President Biden said, “I think it’s a bit…” when reporters asked about the rumor of Israel striking Iranian oil facilities.

When asked by reporters whether he would allow Israel to retaliate, President Biden said, “We are not giving permission to Israel, we are advising it,” and “Nothing will happen today (the 3rd).”

Previously, President Biden revealed that he did not agree with Israel’s plan to strike Iran’s nuclear facilities. This means that although Iranian nuclear facilities cannot be struck, strikes on oil facilities can be considered.

-US September service industry conditions are strong… ISM PMI 54.9 (complementary)[

The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) announced that the service industry purchasing managers’ index (PMI) recorded 54.9 in September.

This figure exceeds Yonhap Infomax’s market estimate (screen number 8808) of 51.7. It is also the highest figure since February 2023.

ISM reported that the service industry continued to expand for three consecutive months. ISM’s Services PMI has recorded expansion in 49 of the past 52 months.

PMI measures industry contraction and expansion based on 50.

ISM analyzed that “September’s service industry PMI improved by 3.4 points from August’s 51.5,” and that “corporate activity (production) and new orders each increased by more than 6 points, leading to the improvement of the service industry PMI.”

-BOE Governor “We may lower interest rates more aggressively”… Pound plummets[

Andrew Bailey, governor of the Bank of England (BOE), the central bank of England, has revealed that he may cut interest rates more aggressively.

In an interview with the British daily Guardian on the 3rd (local time), Governor Bailey said that if the inflation-related news continues to be good, he can cut interest rates “a little more aggressively.”

This is a different attitude from the previous position that emphasized a ‘gradual approach’.

“We’re certainly watching,” Bailey said, adding, “We’re watching extremely closely to see the impact of the latest news.”

“What I have felt from all the conversations I have had with our counterparts in the region is that there is a strong will to keep the (crude oil) market stable right now,” he said.

*Key indicators in Asian time zone

▲N/A Financial markets closed due to China’s ‘national holiday’

*US Indicators/Corporate Performance

▲2130 New employment and unemployment rate in the US non-agricultural sector

▲2200 Speech by John Williams, President of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, USA

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