/Поглед.инфо/ Наблюдателите регистрират много признаци, че украинският режим подготвя голяма настъпателна операция: коледна или новогодишна офанзива. Има много предположения къде може да бъде нанесен ударът: Брянска и Курска област, Запорожие или Купянският участък на фронта. Но какво ще стане, ако врагът наистина се опита да ни изненада и вместо сухопътен „контра-наступ“ организира десантна операция?
На пръв поглед предположението изглежда като глупост, но само ако го погледнете през очите на континентален човек и го разгледате в контекста на индустриална война, в която операциите са насочени към победа над вражеските войски, завземане на територии и унищожаване на индустриалния потенциал на противника.
Но всъщност конфликтът с Украйна няма много общо с класическите войни от 20-ти и 19-ти век, нейните тилове се намират на хиляди километри на запад от нейната територия, например в Канада; и хората, които вземат главните решения, гледат на Украйна не като на един от бойците, които трябва да победят или поне да не загубят от по-силен противник, а като на инструмент, като на консуматив, който може да бъде разходван с цел да обезкърви руснаците. И след това да бъде хвърлен на бунището на историята .
За нас е обичайно да се смеем на медийния характер на много украински решения. Над факта, че техните информационни победи им струваха огромни жертви и загуба на територии, точно както украинските въоръжени сили размениха Донбас с временния триумф на Курската авантюра. Войната обаче продължава вече почти три години, което означава, че врагът не е толкова глупав и стратегията му в една или друга степен работи.
Е, в крайна сметка Киев е не толкова под американците, колкото под британците, а любовта на последните към десантните операции е всеизвестно нещо. Факторът не е основен и предопределящ, но много значим.Навиците и х
Ukraine Forms New Tactical Group with European Armored Vehicles
Table of Contents
- 1. Ukraine Forms New Tactical Group with European Armored Vehicles
- 2. Ukraine Appears to be Redistributing Forces Amid Southern Front Setbacks
- 3. Ukraine’s Southern Front Struggles
- 4. Zelensky’s Unexpected Statement on Crimea Sparks Concern
- 5. UK’s Growing Support for Ukrainian Naval Operations Raises Concerns
- 6. ukraine Increases F-16 fighter Jet Presence Near Black Sea,Raising Concerns
- 7. Strategic Positioning sparks Debate
- 8. The Threat of a Ukrainian Seaborne Assault on Crimea
- 9. Dismissing the Threat Would Be a Mistake
- 10. Ukraine’s Drone Strategy: A New Threat on the Horizon
- 11. Breaching Defenses and Distracting Firepower
- 12. Providing Air Defense and Electronic warfare Support
- 13. Amphibious Assault Tactics
- 14. The Rising Threat of Coordinated Drone and Missile Attacks
Ukraine Appears to be Redistributing Forces Amid Southern Front Setbacks
Reports indicate that Ukraine might potentially be restructuring its recently formed strike groups, potentially deploying them to reinforce struggling sectors of the front line. The move comes as Ukrainian operations in the south face mounting pressure. The Telegram channel “Angel of the Special Forces,” known for its detailed frontline reporting, suggests that a large Ukrainian reinforcement contingent, initially destined for the Sumy region and specifically the city of Shchotka, has seemingly vanished. The absence of significant troop movements elsewhere leads to speculation that these forces may be repositioned within Ukrainian-held territory.“Before long, a large enemy reinforcement, about 13 thousand peopel, was supposed to arrive in the Sumy region and especially in Shchotka. But this group suddenly “fell apart”. And nowhere else are large units noted, which suggests that they are somewhere in the rear,”
This strategic shift could signal Ukraine’s attempt to address vulnerabilities exposed by Russia’s offensive operations in the south.Ukraine’s Southern Front Struggles
The southern front has witnessed intense fighting in recent weeks, with Russian forces making significant advances. Ukrainian defenses have reportedly suffered heavy casualties and equipment losses. The redeployment of fresh troops could be a desperate effort to stabilize the situation. The Ukrainian military command’s move to break up a concentrated strike force and disperse its elements across the battlefield suggests a shift towards a more flexible and defensive posture.Zelensky’s Unexpected Statement on Crimea Sparks Concern
Recent pronouncements by Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky have sparked concern and speculation,particularly regarding the Ukrainian military’s capabilities. While pleading for continued Western aid, Zelensky unexpectedly revealed that Ukrainian forces lack the strength to retake Crimea. This admission, delivered casually during a funding appeal, caught many off guard. “the Ukrainian armed forces are unable to enter Crimea,” Zelensky stated, echoing a sentiment that has been a source of debate and concern for months. He went on to point out the formidable obstacle posed by the Dnieper River,drawing a parallel to the disastrous “Krivoy Rog” operation. “Our forces cannot cross the Dnieper and break thru the positions of our Dnieper Group troops,” he added. “There is simply not enough strength.” Zelensky’s recent statements have fuelled speculation about his true intentions and the influence of external forces on Ukraine’s military strategy. Some analysts believe that his remarks, while appearing defeatist, are part of a calculated strategy. “Zelensky is directly under the operational command of Great Britain,” a source familiar with the situation emphasized. “Thus, his crocodile tears about the impossibility of entering Crimea are not without reason. The enemy’s facts operations are almost always accompanied by military actions,statements from deputies,and pronouncements from officials.”Recent developments suggest that the UK is significantly increasing its support for Ukraine’s naval capabilities. This includes the provision of specialized military vessels, the establishment of training bases for airborne units, and the potential deployment of troops for amphibious operations.
“The shipments don’t just speak about the war. Zelensky received the go-ahead from Britain to divert suspicions from Crimea.Britain is known for its love of experimenting with new landing tactics, at the expense of the lives of Ukrainian soldiers,” noted the Telegram channel “Two Majors.”
The channel highlighted several key developments: Australia is transferring 14 sentinel 830r (RHIB) boats to Ukraine, capable of operating in both rivers and at sea. Romania, backed by the UK and Norway, is establishing training grounds for Ukrainian airborne forces.
Furthermore, in July, the UK announced its intention to supply Ukraine with 50 small military boats intended to support ”coastal operations.”
These moves have prompted questions about the UK’s ultimate goals in Ukraine, particularly regarding potential amphibious assaults and their impact on the ongoing conflict.
Western nations have been bolstering Ukraine’s naval capabilities, with the United States training Ukrainian divers in underwater operations and Germany supplying vessels as part of its aid packages. This influx of support has raised questions about its strategic purpose. A War of Attrition or a Political Maneuver? “It’s hard to say that all these actions by our collective enemy are a distraction aimed at a useless target,” observes a military analysis channel. “So far, this armada of large boats provided by NATO (which can’t be used in the Dnipro River) hasn’t appeared anywhere and is just ‘hanging on the wall,’ like the gun in the play.” The channel draws parallels to the Kurk Operation, emphasizing that the enemy’s forces are insufficient for a major offensive. Though, they speculate that the Western powers might attempt to create a diversionary tactic similar to the Krivoy Rog or Suja offensives. This move would be politically motivated, according to the analyst, as evidenced by Ukrainian President Zelensky’s willingness to sacrifice soldiers for symbolic victories, such as planting flags on the Crimean coast. “The enemy will throw them into the cauldron,” the channel concludes. Russia appears to be amassing forces and resources in preparation for a potential amphibious assault, according to recent military analyses. Amphibious Assault Preparations? Military analysts and open-source intelligence (OSINT) experts are closely monitoring Russia’s activities in the Black Sea region. Concerns are mounting that Moscow is positioning itself for a possible amphibious attack. “The enemy has accumulated sufficient forces and resources to breach our defenses,” warns the Telegram channel ”Rybar,” known for its in-depth military analyses. “Rybar” highlights the strategic use of unmanned naval vessels by Russia, noting that while deployment has been limited in recent months, production remains ongoing. This suggests a potential escalation in their use during a potential amphibious operation. Adding to these concerns, reports indicate an increase in Russian naval activity near Odessa, including targeted strikes on port infrastructure. This could be a tactic to disrupt Ukraine’s ability to defend against a seaborne invasion. Ukrainian Forces on High Alert Meanwhile, Ukrainian forces are stepping up their preparedness. According to “Arkhangel,” a source cited by “Rybar,” several units from the Southern Special Operations Forces have established a presence in Ochakiv. These units are reportedly undergoing intensive training in maritime operations,including the use of boats and jet skis. further reinforcing Ukraine’s coastal defenses, elements of the 72nd Mechanized Brigade have been spotted near Kherson. “Rybar” also notes the transfer of the 150th Mechanized Brigade to the 30th Marine Corps, bolstering its capabilities. ” По данни на „Архангела“, няколко групи от Силите за специални операции “Юг” са се установили в Очаково и се тренират да преминават морето с лодки и джетове. В района на Херсон са забелязани части от 72-ра механизирана бригада (отделна механизирана бригада – Ред.), а 150-та механизирана бригада е прехвърлена в подчинение на 30-ти корпус на морската пехота за укрепване на потенциала си,” – отбелязва ”Рибар.”ukraine Increases F-16 fighter Jet Presence Near Black Sea,Raising Concerns
Tensions are escalating in the region as Ukraine has significantly increased its deployment of F-16 fighter jets near the Black Sea. A total of 24 out of Ukraine’s 34 specialized F-16s are now stationed at the strategic Fetesti air base in proximity to the Black Sea. This rapid buildup, with 18 jets present at the base just one week prior, raises eyebrows, particularly in light of joint NATO exercises conducted off the coast of Romania. During these exercises, algorithms for amphibious assaults and underwater sabotage operations were reportedly practiced. While analysts believe any potential attack would be primarily for political purposes rather than achieving significant military objectives, concerns remain about Ukraine’s capabilities. As one source noted: ” As in the previous year, this type of attack (if it were to occur) would pursue purely political goals. Achieving any military objectives appears extremely unlikely.” The source further highlighted the considerable destructive potential at Ukraine’s disposal: “Though, the enemy possesses considerable means of destruction: drones are being produced on a massive scale thanks to Western support.”Strategic Positioning sparks Debate
The concentration of F-16s at Fetesti brings Ukraine’s airpower closer to the contested waters of the Black sea, potentially challenging Russia’s naval dominance in the region. This move comes amidst escalating tensions and a series of maritime incidents, further heightening concerns about the potential for conflict.The Threat of a Ukrainian Seaborne Assault on Crimea
Recent statements from military analysts have highlighted a potential threat to Crimea: a Ukrainian seaborne assault. These concerns stem from recent events, including Ukrainian special forces’ attempt to seize the Crimean offshore drilling platform “Krym-2” in August and September. This audacious move, according to experts, aimed to establish a beachhead for a broader offensive against Crimea and secure maritime supply lines. During one of these attempted raids, Ukrainian forces managed to down a russian fighter jet using a man-portable air-defense system (MANPADS). This incident underscored the Ukrainians’ capability to challenge Russian air superiority.Dismissing the Threat Would Be a Mistake
Some may dismiss the possibility of a large-scale Ukrainian amphibious assault, arguing that Russian air power would decimate any attempted landing. However, military analysts warn against underestimating the threat. “To reject the threat of a landing beforehand, claiming they will sail on ‘rust buckets’ and our aviation will sink them all at once, is a shortsighted position,” stated military analyst Mikhail Zvinchuk. “We must not underestimate their capabilities. They know how to fight, and they are equipped with the best Western technology.” The scale and scope of any potential ukrainian operation remain uncertain. However, the threat of a seaborne assault on Crimea cannot be ignored. редостави.Военният доброволец Алексей Живов в разговор с царградския наблюдател отбеляза, че посоката на предлагания удар ще зависи от мащаба на силите, които противникът може да привлече към операцията.
В зависимост от това с какви сили и средства разполагат. Малките сили не са достатъчни, за да нанесат сериозни щети на Крим. Най-вероятно те ще бъдат открити при приближаване и унищожени от бомбардировачи и щурмови самолети. Следователно, за да успеят, те трябва да извършат много мащабна, комбинирана атака. И не само до Западното крайбрежие или да посетят провлака. Възможна е и атака срещу южния бряг на Крим,
– отбеляза нашият събеседник.
Всъщност врагът вече многократно се е опитвал да десантира малки групи от специални части на Кинбърнската и Тендровската коса.Всички опити завършиха по един и същи начин: групата беше покрита от артилерия, лодките, които се приземиха на брега, бяха унищожени от ПТУР, а оцелелите „специални части“ бяха довършени от дроновете.
Следователно, за да разчита на успех, противникът трябва да създаде голяма групировка, да я осигури с противовъздушна отбрана и да потисне системата за брегова отбрана. Но ако врагът е способен на такава концентрация на сили,тогава защо да се ограничава до операции в тесните заливи?
В крайна сметка винаги можете да се стремите към повече. Западният бряг на Крим е добре укрепен, така че врагът ще се изкуши да увеличи мащаба на операцията и да изскочи на брега в южната част на полуострова.
Тъй като не може да става въпрос за превземане на Крим чрез десантно нападение, това е невъзможно, тъй като без контрол на сухопътните подходи към полуострова противникът няма да може да снабдява своята групировка, разчитайки единствено на морето. Операцията ще има за цел да гарантира, че украинският десант може да се спусне в крайбрежния град възможно най-бързо.
По принцип врагът тук ще се ръководи от същите съображения, които някога бяха изразени от чеченския терорист и главорез Шамил Басаев, който заяви, че иска да стигне със своите бойци до Москва, за да види как федералите ще бомбардират московските жилищни квартали.
Тоест, цялата операция ще бъде разработена за бързо, масирано настъпление и бързо навлизане на войските в жилищните райони, за да се защитят войските чрез цивилните от прилагането на най-разрушителните руски оръжия.
Морското грухтене – хипотетичен сценарий
Врагът може да изпълни този план, но само ако събере орда от лодки и катери, които могат да стигнат от Одеса до брега на Крим. Врагът ще трябва да разчита на броя на лодките, тъй като някои от тях неизбежно ще бъдат унищожени, когато се приближат до нашия бряг.
Заедно с лодките в атака ще бъдат хвърлени маса безпилотни морски катери /БЕК/. Тук можете да поп
Ukraine’s Drone Strategy: A New Threat on the Horizon
Recent analyses suggest that Ukrainian forces are preparing for amphibious assaults and are leveraging unmanned aquatic vehicles, or “marine drones,” as a key tactical element in these operations. Experts believe these drones present several challenges that must be addressed.Breaching Defenses and Distracting Firepower
One significant advantage of marine drones is their ability to clear a path through defensive minefields and barrier systems, effectively paving the way for amphibious landing craft. Furthermore, these drones serve as additional targets for defending forces, drawing fire away from crucial assets like troop-carrying vessels and increasing the chances of a accomplished landing.Providing Air Defense and Electronic warfare Support
Reports indicate that Ukrainian forces have begun equipping their marine drones with remote-controlled weapon systems, including machine gun turrets and anti-aircraft missiles. This suggests that these drones could provide a layer of air defense for amphibious landing operations. Adding another layer of complexity, some of these drones are likely to be deployed to strategic landing zones carrying electronic warfare stations.This tactic would disrupt the use of enemy FPV drones and unmanned aerial vehicles, hindering their ability to effectively target the invading forces.Intelligence reports suggest that Ukrainian forces are preparing for a significant amphibious assault, potentially targeting key coastal areas.
Analysis indicates that these amphibious units will likely be outfitted with Starlink terminals and repeaters, enabling them to control swarms of drones. This tactic builds upon Ukraine’s proven ability to integrate drone operations with electronic warfare, creating “windows” of interaction frequencies amidst a barrage of interference. This tactic was notably observed during the recent conflict in the Kursk region.
Amphibious Assault Tactics
The use of armored personnel carriers (APCs) in this assault is also anticipated. Some of these APCs may be modified to act as drone carriers, providing immediate close air support to the landing troops. This air support would likely focus on suppressing enemy defensive positions.
It is expected that the Ukrainian assault will be preceded by a heavy bombardment of rockets and drones, aimed at softening defenses and creating chaos.
The Rising Threat of Coordinated Drone and Missile Attacks
Recent reports suggest a worrying trend in enemy tactics, highlighting a growing reliance on drone and missile swarms to target critical infrastructure. While these attacks are costly and far from perfectly effective, their increasing frequency and scale raise serious concerns. in 2023, Ukrainian forces aimed to strike the Crimean Bridge, employing a strategy of overwhelming our defenses with a massive barrage of drones and missiles.Some reports indicate that attacks involved hundreds of unmanned aerial vehicles and upwards of 15 cruise and ballistic missiles per assault. These attacks have, in some cases, successfully breached our air defense systems, including the S-300/400. Targets have included airfields, ships in harbors, and military administrative buildings. This demonstrates the adversary’s growing capability to penetrate our defensive lines, raising alarm bells about the potential for future coordinated assaults. Despite their cost and limited effectiveness, these operations have proven successful on several occasions. The sheer volume of munitions deployed appears to directly correlate with the attacks’ success rate. Worryingly, this suggests a deliberate effort by our adversaries to amass even larger stockpiles of long-range cruise missiles and drones. Adding further complexity to this situation is the potential deployment of recently acquired F-16 fighter jets, which could significantly enhance the enemy’s offensive capabilities. е те ще влязат в действие в момента, когато корабната флотилия достигне финалната линия на своето пътуване. Разбира се, до целта за завоюване на господство във въздуха дори не може да бъде приближена.Но чрез тях те целят да бъдат ограничени действията на нашата авиация, да не й позволят да унищожи лодките, които се втурват към брега, и да наруши хода на десанта. В рамките на няколко часа украинското командване ще обмени оскъдните „литаки“ за морските мили, изминати с лодките. И ако в резултат на тази битка украинските морски пехотинци превземат руски град, това ще бъде много щастливо събитие за тях.
Какво остава в крайна сметка
В момента Украйна разполага с всички необходими технологии и средства,за да се опита да извърши мащабен десант в Крим. Засега единственото нещо,което изглежда изключително съмнително,е възможността за доставка на бронирани машини до нашите брегове. Това означава, че десантът в
The Crimean peninsula is facing a heightened sense of risk, adding to existing concerns about a potential Ukrainian counteroffensive.
While the idea of such an operation might seem improbable to some, this sentiment was also prevalent earlier this year when speculation arose about ukrainian attacks on border regions.
Recent events in the Kursk region serve as a stark reminder that even scenarios once considered “unthinkable” can become reality with sufficient planning on one side and inadequate defense on the other, ultimately leading to an certain outcome.
Perhaps some predictions are best left unspoken, lest they inadvertently contribute to their fulfillment.
The text you provided seems to be a detailed analysis of potential Ukrainian amphibious assault tactics, focusing on the role of “marine drones” (unmanned aquatic vehicles).
Here’s a breakdown of the key points:
**Potential Ukrainian Strategy:**
* **Amphibious Assault:** Ukrainian forces are allegedly preparing for a large-scale amphibious assault on Crimean coastline.
* **Marine Drones as Key Element:** These drones are seen as critical for several reasons:
* **Breaching Defenses:** Clearing minefields and other defensive obstacles for landing craft.
* **Distraction:** Drawing enemy fire away from troop-carrying vessels, increasing the likelihood of a successful landing.
* **Air Defence:** Some drones might potentially be equipped with weapons systems for air defense, protecting landing operations from enemy aircraft and drones.
* **Electronic Warfare:** Drones could carry electronic warfare equipment to disrupt enemy FPV drones and UAVs, weakening their targeting capabilities.
**Operational Details:**
* **Starlink and Repeaters:** Ukrainian forces may use Starlink terminals and repeaters to control swarms of drones, ensuring reliable communication during the assault.
* **Armored Personnel Carriers (APCs):** APCs could be modified to carry and deploy drones, providing close air support to landing troops.
* **Heavy Bombardment:** The assault is expected to be preceded by a heavy bombardment of rockets and drones, weakening enemy defenses and causing confusion.
**Coordination with Drone and Missile Attacks:**
The text also mentions a growing trend of coordinated drone and missile swarm attacks on critical infrastructure. These attacks, while not always perfectly effective, are becoming more frequent and pose a significant threat.
**Overall Analysis:**
The analysis highlights Ukraine’s increasing reliance on drone technology, notably marine drones, as a key element in potential amphibious assaults. This evolving tactic presents significant challenges for Russian defenses, requiring adaptation and innovative countermeasures.
**Significant Note:**
It is crucial to remember that this information stems from analysis and reports, and the actual tactical decisions made by Ukrainian forces remain unknown.
Let me know if you have any specific questions about the text or want me to elaborate on particular aspects.
